Pregnant with Piper? You betchya...!

Since the beginning of the controversy regarding Gov. Sarah Palin's pregnancy, one aspect that has been commented on continually is that her appearance last spring did not mesh with expectations of a "normal" pregnancy.

At the time of the announcement, March 5th, 2008, the news that she was expecting was regarded with utter astonishment. Although Palin claimed at the time that she had to announce the pregnancy when she did because "people were beginning to notice," and that her clothes were getting "snugger and snugger," in fact the only person who has ever stated this IS Gov. Palin. (Even the article in which Palin is quoted as saying her clothes were getting tighter has as its main theme the fact that no one - not even her staffers - suspected she was pregnant.)

And a quick digression: I have always wondered, after reading this explanation for the public acknowledgment of a pregnancy that was allegedly already in its seventh month, if no one had EVER "noticed" her clothes getting tight, at what point would Palin have announced it? It's a fair question. Or would she have just showed up with a baby one day? She seems to be implying exactly that.)

Not one person has ever come forward and stated that they even suspected Gov. Palin to be pregnant prior to March 5th, at which point she would have been – based on her own announced due date – approximately 29 weeks pregnant with her fifth child. Not one staffer, not one journalist, no one. One sole journalist, Cherie Shirrey of KTVA, within 48 hours of the controversy erupting in August, jumped to Palin's defense and claimed that she had seen Palin numerous times for interviews and "in the studio" prior to Trig's birth (implying that it was between the time of the announcement – March 5th – and the birth six weeks later) and that Palin was definitely pregnant. Here's the blog post I did about this last December. However, Palin's daily schedule (obtained under a FOIA request) for the two months prior to Trig's birth in fact shows not a single visit to this TV station's studio. I have personally written Ms. Shirrey asking her to corroborate her statement. I have inquired about the dates of these interviews, topics covered, and why no video or stills are available of any of these interviews. I have received no answer.

After the announcement of her nomination on August 29th, one photo had appeared of Gov. Palin pregnant with a previous child (prior to the alleged pregnancy with Trig in 2008.)



This photo was provided by her parents to the news media as part of a large group of family photos that were released very shortly (within a day or two) after her VP pick. Although in a couple of places it has been suggested that this is not actually Palin at all (based on the fact that frankly the woman in the photo does not seem to look much like Sarah Palin does now) neither the Palin family nor the McCain campaign retracted the photo or ever stated it was not she. This photo has been shown widely, specifically to cast doubt on whether she is Trig's mother, and has been effective in doing so. I believe that if they had been able to retract the photo by claiming that it was someone else and had been released by mistake, that they would have done so.

Her hairstyle and general appearance actually are consistent with other photos we have of her from the late eighties into the early nineties. This comparison below shows Palin, I believe, looking very much similar to the photo of her late in pregnancy.



(And, no, I have no clue at all why she is wearing a crown, so don't bother to ask.)

Although rumored to be of her late in her pregnancy with Track (in 1989), as far as I can determine that's never been confirmed. However, based on hairstyle, my guess is that the photo is either from Track's pregnancy or Bristol's pregnancy two years later (1991.) Willow was born in mid-summer, 1995, and based on the surroundings, I do not believe this to be a mid summer scene.

Regardless of the exact year, however, one thing is clear. Gov. Palin is not only pregnant, she is in this photo I would say larger than average, particularly so if this might be her first pregnancy. In precise medical terms, she's huge. This evidence of her being of certainly "normal" size (and then some) in a prior pregnancy has been largely ignored by those who support Palin. They feel comfortable ignoring this photo for one reason: we do not know "how pregnant" Palin is here. She could hypothetically be one day away from giving birth at full term, a point she never reached with Trig, who was allegedly born at 35 weeks. Palin might be, it's suggested, one of those women who just gets really big "right at the end." The picture therefore is worthless for comparison purposes, it's claimed.

And – again – whenever this is discussed, the same group of "she got big right at the end" naysayers also serenade us with plausible tales of how they themselves, (or their wives, sisters, co-workers, what have you) never looked pregnant either. Every one of these people seems to know LOTS of 110 pound women who never looked pregnant and then, miraculously, gave birth to healthy seven, eight, even nine pound children. I am sure there are exceptions to every rule, but in fact, in nearly thirty years of working with pregnant women, I have never met one who looked significantly less pregnant on a subsequent pregnancy (unless there was a very good physiological reason, such as a single pregnancy following twins) than she did on an earlier one. It just doesn't work that way. I know, you know it, Governor Sarah Palin knows it, and deep down, every Palin supporter who tries to feed us this line of bullpuckey knows it too.

Since September, I have been hoping that additional photos of Palin from a prior pregnancy would become available which would shed some additional light on this issue. Was her pregnancy with Piper, for example, as magically free of any of those pesky physical changes as her pregnancy with Trig apparently was?

I can say now that it was not. Additional photos have been found, though regrettably they are not of the best quality. We have located two photographs of her taken in late November/early December, 2000, during her pregnancy with Piper. Both are from the archives of the Frontiersman, the local newspaper for the Mat-Su Valley.

Originals are not available. We have the photos in three separate formats, copies made from microfiche (microfiche provided by the University of Alaska), Xerox copies made from the actual extant physical copies of the paper (in person at the Frontiersman offices), and digital photographs of the physical copies of the paper (also taken in person at the Frontiersman offices.) None of these methods are ideal. Yet, in both, in spite of the fuzziness of the copies, I believe she definitely looks pregnant.

Piper was born on March 22, 2001, according to this article on her projected due date. The first week of December, therefore, Sarah Palin would have been around 25 weeks pregnant. She looks, well, normal. At twenty five weeks into her fourth pregnancy. This is, fortuitously, exactly the same point of pregnancy she would have been at when these famous "Super Tuesday" photos were taken in Juneau.





Unlike many other photos of her taken in late winter / early spring 2008, where Palin seems to be determined to hide behind winter coats, trench coats, huge (and notably unattractive) floppy print scarves, tables, podiums, mannish black blazers, and her own children, these two shots are remarkably clear. She is slim-hipped and flat-chested, and, in my opinion, she shows utterly no signs of pregnancy whatsoever.

Here are the two photos. The first, dated December 1, 2000 would have been taken sometime in the prior week, so let's say between November 24th and November 30th.



The second, dated December 5, 2000, again could have been taken any point in the prior week: between November 30th and December 4th. In this second photo, Palin is holding something – I presume a coat – draped over her left arm. Here's our original:



Here's one we sharpened to try to bring up some contrast between what she is wearing and what she is holding.



Closely examining the photo shows a slightly greenish cast to the fabric in a few places. However, as the fabric falls between her body and that of the other woman it is impossible to differentiate between what she is holding and her dark clothing, due to the fact that newspaper "half tones" scan at 85 dpi, which is a very low resolution photograph to work from.

In spite of the drawbacks of these two photos, the fullness of Palin's shape – in both photos - is impossible to deny.

Palin's supporters – the "Sarah Palin had Trig because Sarah Palin would never lie" posse – have also stated that the reason Palin never looked pregnant with Trig is that in 2007-2008 she was "in the public eye" and "did not let herself go." These photos of her pregnant with Piper demonstrate this is false. Palin was in the public eye (she was mayor of Wasilla) and was also very fit (running competitively around this point in her life). How she looked with Piper in 2000-2001 should be a very good guide to how we might have expected her to look with a fifth pregnancy several years later.

Why she didn't is anyone's guess. Mine is that she was not pregnant.

MySpace Part Three

It has always been my preference to focus on the evidence that Sarah Palin was not pregnant in March and April of 2008, and let the question of the identity of Trig Palin’s biological mother play second fiddle. But, in spite of our preference to leave the Palin daughters out of the equation, we have not been able to avoid that completely. Bristol Palin was named nationally as Trig's mother in numerous places as early as August 29, 2008, and she was brought into the game by her own mother on September 1, when Sarah Palin chose to "prove" that she WAS Trig's mother, not by providing Trig's birth certificate or a clear statement by her physician, but by stating that her daughter was then five months pregnant, thus precluding Bristol's having given birth previously in mid-April.

Bristol Palin is by no means the only possibility for Trig Palin's birth mother. However, the persistence of the rumors that she was pregnant dating to before Trig's birth, coupled with the complete lack of photographs of her from the time period, makes it difficult not to continue to consider her the most likely "other mother."

Since September, numerous people have been looking to social networking websites, like MySpace for additional info about "Life and Times at Wasilla High." As we've stated previously, MySpace has NOT provided us concrete proof about this issue, specifically who Trig's mother is OR whether Bristol Palin was pregnant. But the MySpace comments do give a glimpse into the lives of Bristol, Levi and their circle of friends. And what we can see does indicate that something "changed" as early as July 2007 and that something was amiss during the winter of 2007-2008.

A number of the comments already published here have been suspicious, but none have been conclusive. For example, we’ve seen that Bristol made a series of interesting comments to her friend Johnny in the spring of 2007, including one stating that Gov. Palin had confronted her about possibly being pregnant. Other comments made to her girlfriends also merit attention:

June 22, 2007 9:40 PM
Hey, call me NOW!!

June 25, 2007 1:33 AM
:( now im a mother duck for that baby!

(Note from Audrey: This curious comment is discussed in more detail at the very end of this post.)

June 25, 2007 1:50 AM
ha ha im a slut. but sounds good…what number?

Without context, however, these comments can be interpreted in numerous ways. And, during this same period, other examples show Bristol to be happy and social, engaging in typical summertime activities. This makes it all the more strange when, in late June 2007, she suddenly disappears from MySpace, and is mentioned by name only once after that, even by her good friends.

Please be clear that we have no evidence that as of late June 2007, she actually did stop using MySpace abruptly. It's possible that she could have. Perhaps she became bored with MySpace. Perhaps her computer broke. Perhaps her friends just stopped talking both ABOUT her and TO her as of that date. But it's also quite possible (even probable) that she continued to use MySpace for months after this… and then at some point between late June 2007 and late August 2008, for reasons that we do not know at a point in time we cannot pinpoint, a decision was made to remove Bristol's page from the site, as well as delete any and all comments she made to friends, and apparently either to delete (or asked to be deleted) comments others made about her between themselves.

Because of this, our conclusions are drawn as much from what's NOT there as from what is.

What does our research show post-June 2007? One of the only comments that directly references Bristol after that time (and the only one that uses her name) has already been published, from September 2007, in which one girl (Kaila) is joking with Jenny Jo, who is a good friend of Levi’s off-and-on girlfriend Lanesia, because Jenny Jo had threatened to beat Bristol up for Lanesia.

9/28/2007 Kaila to Jenny Jo:
haha, you were gonna fight Bristol for Lanesia.. idk, it was freakin hilarious though. you were getttin ready to take on like 394083 people yourself. haha..funny ass shit. call me tonight bia.

Is this because Levi and Bristol’s relationship has just been discovered? The problem with this comment is that it references something that happened earlier, "you were gonna fight…" but there is no date context. Was this something that happened the previous night or three months earlier? We don't know.

In any case, by January 2008, Lanesia had moved on to a different relationship, indicating that Bristol and Levi most likely became “official” sometime in either the summer or the fall of 2007.

Although she had a new boyfriend, one specific comment shows that Lanesia might still have harbored some residual feelings for Levi. In late January 2008, there is a burst of chatter that may be significant, though it's inconclusive at the same time. First, messages are left between a young man named Tylor to our old friend Jenny Jo.

In the first, Tylor asks Jenny Jo: "Who do you want to beat up?" (indicating that Jenny Jo has told Tylor that she's angry with someone) and the second – in response to something Jenny Jo then said back to Tylor that we cannot see – "THEY F***ED?"

Is Tylor a newcomer to some gossip? Does the gossip even have anything at all to do with Bristol Palin? The next couple of exchanges certainly indicate the strong possibility that Levi and Bristol are involved. Tylor immediately posts to Rachelle (the sister of Johnny – who has been identified as Bristol's boyfriend prior to Levi) "ARE YOU SERIOUS"

Again, why do we think this has anything to do with Bristol? Because just a couple hours later, Lanesia then posts back to Rachelle:

yea i heard and #### no never again she messed that up to many times and i aint one to talk shit about a girl and go be tight with them but no im not she totally messed up by Fn my Xbf

These exchanges indicate that something surprising was revealed in late January 2008. Lanesia's "yea I heard" can only mean there is new information which involved a girl who was "fn" Lanesia's "xbf," and from our research, the only ex-boyfriend of Lanesia was Levi Johnston. And, although Levi had been linked with several other girls in 2005 and 2006, from 2007 on, the only two girls mentioned in conjunction with Levi were Lanesia herself and Bristol Palin. It would be easy to say that "new shocking" info would be that Bristol was pregnant. Yet – two of the comments specifically mention just sexual activity – as if that might be the "new" thing, which then becomes hard to explain in the context of someone wanting to beat Bristol up FOR Lanesia at least four months earlier.

And then… in this sequence… nothing more.

We can only come back to what was said before: For a popular girl who had an active social life and many friends, and who had been a regular MySpace user, the complete absence of any mention of Bristol through this time period is astonishing. It's important to reiterate that the only comments we can link to her (with the one exception of the comment from September 2007, which makes reference to her being "beat up") do not contain her name.

For example, in April 2008, 8 days before Trig’s official birthdate, an older Wasilla teen named Dannie, someone not closely connected to the primary social group, makes this curious comment on a friend’s MySpace:

April 10, 2008 12:03 AM
…i want to tell you something kinda funny so when you call remind me about the governor’s kid…

Something to do with Bristol?

After that comment, there is nothing more to be found in MySpace about any of the Palins until the end of August. The pregnancy that was announced by the Palin campaign on September 1, 2008 was said to be an “open secret” in Wasilla. Really? Because in spite of the fact that many of the teens’ MySpace profiles were used extensively between April-August 2008, neither Mercede nor any other person makes even one mention of Bristol or the pregnancy. Not one.

Mercede's MySpace page was public until midafternoon on September 1, 2008. We have screen shots of the entire thing. She is so close to her older brother Levi that she had posted several pictures of them together, in which she calls him "her best friend" in the world. She has had his name tattooed on her wrist. Yet not one post about this exciting "open secret" that her dear brother was to become a father, which would make her a new auntie? No.

Numerous comments exist on many girls' pages in which pregnancies, showers, and babies are discussed, in some cases with great excitement and positive feelings. But regarding Bristol, Levi and the Tripp pregnancy... well, it doesn't seem to exist. The only thing we do have is a photograph of Bristol and Mercede together from April 25, 2008 in which Mercede refers to Bristol as her sister-in-law. This is after Trig's birth but before it is plausible that it was known that she was pregnant with Tripp.

Then, the morning of August 29, 2008 arrives, and with it, John McCain’s announcement of his running mate.

On that day, there is an occasional comment along the lines of --hey, did you see who got picked?--but generally nothing more than that. But on the afternoon of the 29th, Dannie (the one who had heard something "kinda funny" about the governor’s kid) does have a specific question, and she poses it to another Wasilla teen, Zach, again someone not tightly connected to the primary group. Because Zach's MySpace profile is private, we cannot see the initial question to him, but his answer is this:

August 29, 2008 3:39 PM
I know who started it. Tylor [last name deleted by PD]
I think that’s how you spell his name

There is no context surrounding this remark to aid interpretation. All we know is that Zach says that Tylor started “it”. Because Zach identifies Tylor by his first and last name, we know for sure that this is the same Tylor who was involved in the exchanges regarding the surprising news back in January.

Fast forward a bit to September 3, the day of Sarah Palin’s speech at the Republican National Convention. Not only is the Palin/Johnston pregnancy an “open secret” in Wasilla, it’s now the most famous pregnancy in the entire United States. The governor of Alaska is on the ticket; her oldest daughter has been outed as a pregnant unwed teen on the national news; said daughter and her hockey star fiance are being seen all over the world. That should warrant quite a few MySpace comments. No need to keep it on the down-low anymore. Right? Or at least a couple of comments? Actually: zero.

Well, maybe just one, a cryptic question--asked by a girl named Kelci of Kaila (the same Kaila who was involved in the exchange with Jenny Jo about beating up Bristol a year earlier):

September 3, 2008 6:06 PM
bp?

Kaila's answer is not known because Kelci's profile is private, but, after receiving a response, she comments back to Kaila

September 4, 2008 6:02 PM
mmmmm gotcha. that’s what I figured but I wasn’t fasho
whadddup?

For the uninitiated, "fasho" in teen speak means "for sure." So Kelci is saying, "That's what I thought [about whatever it is they were talking about concerning "bp"] but I wasn't sure."

But what could it be? If we're to believe that Bristol’s pregnancy is an "open secret" in Wasilla, and that Levi and Bristol are an established, even engaged, couple, why is it that the only possible mention of it at this point (OR throughout the entire previous summer OR during the entire following campaign) is this one girl who dares use only initials? Hmmm.

And what could this girl be asking? We believe she is a relative of Kaila (though we can't confirm that 100%); she also lives in the Wasilla area, and she is friends with many of the same people as Kaila. So she wouldn’t be confirming simply that Bristol is pregnant, because everyone already knows that, right?

So what are my conclusions?

1. Bristol Palin was "scrubbed" from MySpace as of an arbitrary date. This date seems to be around July 1, 2007, though the date the scrubbing was actually done is completely unknown. Numerous comments from before this date existed as of September 1, 2008 (though many have since been removed) including one fairly troublesome one about her mother questioning whether or not she was pregnant. Only one comment exists which mentions her by name after that date, and NO comments from her.

2. There was chatter about something surprising, even shocking, in late January 2008 that involved Levi Johnston, and in all probability, Bristol Palin. This was far too early for her to have been pregnant with Tripp. However, considering earlier comments, it seems too late to have been simply that the two young people were in a relationship.

3. There is not a single mention of Bristol, Levi, or Bristol's pregnancy throughout the entire summer of 2008, even though it was supposed to have been an "open secret" in Wasilla. A single comment, mentioning Bristol only by using her initials, strongly suggests on September 3rd that there is something more going on than just the supposed "open secret. " It was something that there was gossip about, something that some young people in Wasilla (who should have been connected with the group) were unaware of. Something about Tripp's pregnancy was not "as presented" on September 1, 2008, though what exactly that is is completely unclear. Dates? Who the father might be?

The MySpace information is confusing, at time contradictory, and terribly incomplete. Yet, overall, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the timelines of neither the Trig nor the Tripp pregnancies seem plausible based on what is being said (and not said) among teenagers in Wasilla.

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PS. Those who have read this far (!) will probably note that no comment has been made about a curious post from late June, 2007, in which Bristol states:

:( now im a mother duck for that baby!

(For those who don't know, the ":( " is a "frowny face" indicating unhappiness.)

This comment has caused quite a bit of private debate and discussion among those affiliated with this blog. Certainly, it is hard to say it is not significant: it is the second to last thing still available from Bristol on MySpace (only her "now I'm a slut" comment came later, by a couple of minutes) AND – good grief! - it mentions a baby!

But what does it mean? It has been suggested that she is being forced to gestate a child, like a mother duck sitting on eggs. Several of the Palin Deception researchers subscribe to this theory, and find it extremely significant.

It has also been suggested that, in spite of the timing, it has nothing to do with Bristol being pregnant or not pregnant. I for one find the use of the phrase "that baby" to indicate that she is talking about something separate from her, possibly a child (Piper, who was five at the time?) she was being forced to babysit for. (And ducklings follow mother ducks around constantly.)

If Bristol Palin had said, ":( now im a mother duck for THIS baby!" I would be saying that I found it highly indicative of pregnancy. But the use of the word "that" to me means she is talking about something she is not happy about, something she has actual disdain for. Most teenaged women who become pregnant and decide to keep the baby tend to be excited about it (naively perhaps, but still excited.) The negative tone of this comment indicates to me that she is talking about something else. I do not know what.

But I am presenting both sets of thoughts here, and the reader needs to decide for himself on this one.

A Welcome and an Explanation

Over the last 48-72 hours, literally thousands of new readers have visited this blog. Hopefully a few are coming back to see what else is new. I've been so swamped the past few days answering emails, checking out all the places that have linked to us, etc, that I am still working on the third MySpace post. It will come soon. My goal is Monday at the latest.

I'd like to take this opportunity to make a post which will review for new readers some of the most informative posts from the blog from the last seven months. (Has it really been that long? I don't even want to think about that!)

First, though, I am a bit troubled how we've been presented in some of the articles that have linked to us over the past few days. It's ironic that after months of focusing on the question of whether Sarah Palin gave birth to Trig Palin now almost a year ago, the post that brought the blog the most publicity was one that was - in fact - atypical for us.

The decision to bring the teen MySpace material into the dialogue was a difficult one. Obviously, if there was anything absolutely conclusive regarding the motherhood of Trig on MySpace I would have used it long ago, but because there is not, I had been sitting on this information. Most of the material presented I have had available since October. Even now I used only the most minimal material, and only quotes that directly spoke to Bristol and Levi's relationship and Sarah's credibility. These Wasilla teens were not some random kids my helpers pulled off of MySpace just because they lived in the same town; these teens were Bristol's close circle of friends, and frankly I used about 1% of the material we have.

It has always been the goal of my blog to prove that Sarah Palin faked a pregnancy last spring and to leave the question of whom exactly Trig's mother really is to the "clean-up" crew. Over the last six months, I believe I have shown more than adequate proof of this, as follows:
1. I have shown photographs of her less than four weeks before allegedly giving birth to a six pound child in which there are no signs of pregnancy. Click here to read "The Nail in the Coffin," originally published in December.
2. I have shown photographs of her going from barely visibly pregnant to huge in four days. Click here to read "Some New Photo Evidence," published in October.
3. I have shown a screen shot of her approximately ten days prior to Trig's birth in which the shape of her belly is square.
4. I have demonstrated that, on countless fronts, she has told lies about the pregnancy. Read "Spin, Baby, Spin" from September and "Spin, Spin, We Almost Become Dizzy" from December to start. There are numerous more posts on the blog that go into other issues.
5. We have torn apart the "statement" given by the McCain campaign, allegedly from her doctor, that was passed off to the press as her medical records. Here's "The Purloined Letter" from February.
6. I have analyzed the story she told about her trip from Texas to Alaska, supposedly after showing clear signs of being in labor, and, I believe proved conclusively that it is medically absurd. Please visit the website proper for this discussion.
7. I have raised very valid questions about the Palin's failure to release a certificate which, in my opinion, basically proves that he was not born on April 18th, 2008 (regardless of who his mother is.)

I have done all of this - and more (a lot more!) - and still the mainstream media has refused to pick up the story.

I never wanted to "go after" Bristol, in spite of the fact that she was brought into the dialogue by Sarah Palin. Gov. Palin and the McCain campaign announced on September 1st that Bristol was pregnant, making her the most notorious pregnant teen in the world. (Read here: "Bristol Palin: Under the Bus.") They did it because it was the only way they could "prove" that Sarah WAS Trig's mother... tell us that Bristol could not be. The only thing more absurd than their doing it was the fact that the MSM let them get away with it.

However, lately, I believe that Bristol, along with Mercede and Levi Johnston, have brought themselves into the debate. Bristol was not honest with Greta Van Susteren about several things. Levi and Mercede appeared on the Tyra Banks show and provided the program with numerous photographs. One was a previously unseen photograph of Levi cuddling a newborn, Mercede hovering nearby. I'm sure most viewers assumed it was Levi and Tripp. I'm sure the producer assumed the same. It wasn't. It was Levi and Trig, and the photo was taken almost a year ago. You think that was not a shot across the bow to the Palins?

So why keep doing this? Because while Sarah Palin is history, she is history that still matters. I want an answer as to why a dimbulb who considers "What books do you read?" a trick question was nominated for Vice President of the United States. Newsweek just this week goes in depth about her selection process. She was "vetted" mostly on the Internet, according to Newsweek, and McCain talked to her for the first time on the phone only four days before he made his decision. A woman who stuffed a square pillow under her shirt and pretended to be pregnant (so as to avoid some really pointed questions about her own parenting and family values philosophies) less than one year later was presented to America as a credible vice presidential candidate, one seventy-two year old cancer survivor's heartbeat away from the presidency.

More will be coming on this blog soon. We won't be rehashing old material. But, I did want to draw our new readers' attention to blog posts that give a clear idea of what we've been doing and saying for seven months now.

I feel very badly for Bristol Palin, and would have preferred to just leave her alone. Forever. I get no pleasure whatsoever (I believe one columnist used the word "glee") out of publishing material that damages a young mother's reputation. I don't care who Trig's mom is and honestly I wish I had never heard of Bristol. But I care very much that Sarah Palin might have been vice president, and for that reason I continue to pursue this story.

My Space Part 2

I need to provide a quick update. This week, National Enquirer ran an article about a former boyfriend of Bristol Palin's, and named him. Several other teens involved in this story have also been named in national media. We have reconsidered our decision NOT to "name names." We are using teens' real names in our posts. However, we are not using any last names, nor are we linking to the actual MySpace pages.

Please note that at the end of this post, there is a .pdf attachment which contains screen shots of the comments used in this post as well as the documentation that we used to prove that the redacted MySpace account that we have identifed as Bristol's was in fact hers.

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What ARE the most critical points learned from our extensive MySpace analysis?

1. Bristol Palin began dating beginning when she was 15 or 16. There are strong indications that she was sexually active. Statements that were made to the press (including one from Levi himself) during the campaign that Levi and Bristol had dated for three years or "since freshman year" are no where borne out according to MySpace. If they had dated for three years as of September, 2008, that would have meant their relationship went back to September 2005. In fact, there is no evidence at all that Bristol and Levi dated prior to June 2007. This appears to be a complete fabrication, designed to show the young couple as stable and committed, when in fact they were neither.

2. In the spring of 2007, when Bristol would have been 16 ½ years old, Sarah Palin overheard a telephone conversation between Bristol and a young man named Johnny. Johnny is someone who appears to have been a very good friend -- Bristol commented to him frequently (and usually innocuously) during the time she was in Juneau, often signing her name with a heart. Johnny has been identified multiple places (including just this week in National Enquirer) as Bristol Palin’s boyfriend prior to Levi.

On this occasion, the phone conversation between Johnny and Bristol that Gov. Palin overheard led her to confront Bristol about whether or not she was pregnant. Even if Bristol was NOT pregnant at that time, it surely had to indicate that Gov. Palin suspected her daughter was sexually active. This would make her purported “surprise” at the news Bristol WAS allegedly pregnant with Tripp (a full year later) disingenuous at best.

5/14/2007 Bristol to Johnny:
ha ha, my mom was asking me who I was on the phone with last night, and she said she heard everything I was saying.. now she thinks im pregnant…ahaha call me later if you'd like

Then there was these further exchanges between Bristol and Johnny.

5/17/2007 Bristol to Johnny:
haha, sorry I still had my phone taken away, but I got it back today, so you can call whenever (heart)

5/20/2007 Bristol to Johnny:
if you don’t call me tonight im gonna freak out.

5/27/2007 Bristol to Johnny:
I waited for you to call me last night.

It’s also very interesting to note that these three comments all come within days of the phone call that Palin overheard which led her to wonder if Bristol was pregnant.

Levi Johnston and Johnny were close friends. The National Enquirer mentions this. In their article, they claim that “Levi and Johnny had a big blowup during their sophomore year in high school when Levi and Bristol hooked up while she was still with Johnny.” Our research actually shows something a bit different.

First, there is no indication that anything started between Levi and Bristol “during their sophomore year.” During the second half of Bristol’s sophomore year, she was attending Juneau-Douglas High School in Juneau, and, as late as May 20th (after school ended) she was sending notes to Johnny along the lines of what was quoted above: “If you don’t call me tonight I will freak out.” However, there is some indication that Bristol and Levi began dating in June of that year. Bristol makes one comment to Levi that makes it clear that Levi had left clothing at Bristol’s house. Hmmm. Perhaps they were swimming.

However, more interesting, several comments indicate that while there was a grudge between Levi and Johnny, it was Levi that held the grudge as recently as May of 2008, not the other way around, which should have been the case if Bristol had dumped Johnny FOR Levi. We have several comments between Johnny and Mercede Johnston which makes it sound as if Mercede is trying to patch things up between her brother and Johnny. Johnny is obviously hoping there will be a reconciliation from the tone of the comments. Why there was a grudge that persisted until May of last year, and why Levi seems to be the angry one is completely unclear.

3. Levi Johnston had multiple girlfriends from 2005 on, including one long time serious (though “on again – off again”) relationship with a girl named Lanesia. She later expressed great unhappiness over Levi's loss.

Levi was not a lonely lad. He appears to have "dated" at least five girls, not counting Bristol Palin, from this group alone. Indications are that he was regarded as somewhat of a catch.

One comment indicates that Levi was "messing with" two girls (neither was Bristol Palin) simultaneously on one occasion. One of the girls involved denied the accusation categorically, but the fact that the accusation was made at all (and by girls who knew Levi very well) indicates that they considered it a possibility.

It is not clear from the MySpace comments when Bristol and Levi's relationship began, but it seems to be June of 2007. Lanesia was claiming in May 2007 that she and Levi were back together (and Bristol was not in Wasilla for most of late winter and spring of 2007).

There was discussion in September 2007 between two friends of Lanesia, (Kaila and Jenny Jo,) claiming that Jenny Jo at some point in the past, had planned to beat Bristol up for Lanesia. This comment, interestingly, is the ONLY comment that is visible on MySpace dated after June of 2007 that either is from Bristol Palin or mentions her by name. My speculation is that, when MySpace was "scrubbed," this comment was overlooked somehow.

9/28/2007 Kaila to Jenny Jo:
haha, you were gonna fight Bristol for Lanesia.. idk, it was freakin hilarious though. you were getttin ready to take on like 394083 people yourself. haha..funny ass shit. call me tonight bia.

4. In the interview that Greta Van Susteren did with Bristol Palin on February 17, 2009, Bristol told Ms. Susteren that she did not know any other girls who had been pregnant or had babies. This is totally false and seems like a pointless lie. Numerous girls in Bristol's circle at Wasilla had already had babies.

5. Track Palin (whose has been accused of being no slacker in the party department himself) became so worried about his sister's behavior (though the exact details are not clear) at one point that he actually "outed" her to their parents, calling her a "stoner."

4/18/2007 Bristol to Johnny
tracks little bitch ass decited to tell my parents im a stoner..hes so tight..and when I get home, im gonna kick him in the balls.

6. Levi Johnston had another MySpace account (which has also been removed) and which he did use, which was different from the one that has received so much publicity. (The one on which he claimed he was a f***ing redneck and did not want children.)

However, possibly the most critical thing the MySpace analysis shows is what's NOT there. Prior to August 29, 2008 most of Bristol Palin's presence on MySpace was deliberately removed, and the "scrubbing" appears to go back, not to spring of 2008, which would have been when Bristol's pregnancy with Tripp should have commenced (and there may well have been “chatter” that the McCain campaign did not want made public), but into the summer of 2007, a full year earlier. The last comment made from the account we know to have been Bristol's came in June 2007. Going back into 2006, Bristol used MySpace frequently, commenting often on friends' pages, in a couple of cases as many as three short and quick comments in one day. What's left from spring 2007 shows that Bristol was unhappy in Juneau and liked using MySpace to keep in contact with her Wasilla friends. Levi Johnston does not appear to have been a heavy MySpace user, but he definitely had a separate account, different from the one that contained the well-publicized comment that he did not want children – and that account is also now gone.

As has been said earlier, it's hard to recreate what was scrubbed after the fact. What's left from after June of 2007 are:
1. No comments at all from Bristol dated after June 25, 2007.
2. No MySpace page from Bristol, and the page that Levi Johnston actually seemed to use is also gone.
3. One sole comment that mentions Bristol Palin by name.
4. A few cryptic comments that we believe may refer to Bristol Palin. In one, the initials bp are used. In another, there is reference to "the governor's kid." In a third, a comment that we believe refers to Bristol talks about "you know who."

And what was Bristol's last known comment to any friend? On June 25, 2007 she wrote:

ha ha im a slut. but sounds good...what number?

bristolfinalpdf.pdf

Coming soon: What does MySpace say specifically about whether or not Bristol Palin might have been pregnant in 2007-2008?

Message. In. A. Bottle.

Well, not exactly in a bottle. More like on the Tyra Banks show.

Since the beginning of the controversy about who had given birth to Trig Palin a set of pictures that were published some time prior to May 5, 2008 on Mercede Johnston's MySpace page has given those of us who have tried to solve the riddle, basically, fits. The pictures have been discussed in several other posts on this blog, here. Here's one of them, the other two (one of Mercede with Bristol and one of Mercede with Sarah) can be seen at the posts linked above.



The captions - identifying Trig as Mercede's "baby brother" and Sarah Palin as "mommy in law" could never be adequately explained through "known" relationships. Certainly, many people - myself among them - thought that the captions indicated that Trig Palin was something "special" to Mercede Johnston, something far MORE special than just the younger brother of a good friend, though just how that was remained "obscure" as the captions, while terribly intriguing, were difficult to explain.

No matter how one "sliced and diced," Trig Palin was NOT Mercede's brother unless somehow her mother (Sherrie Johnston) was also Trig's mother... and that seemed beyond credibility... or if somehow Mercede's father was also Trig's father. But it never was possible to explain why, in such a circumstance, Sarah Palin would be motivated to fake a pregnancy. If Trig were Levi's son, Trig would be Mercede's nephew, and she did not say that. If he were merely her future sister-in-law's younger brother, Mercede's enthusiasm was hard to explain.

Initially, many people thought the pictures were taken in a hospital setting. After Gov. Palin did several interviews after the election in her home, we were able to prove conclusively that the photos were in fact taken in the Palin kitchen. While interesting, this made the photos in a way more obscure, since now they could only be dated to some point "before May 5th." We know this because on May 5th, Mercede received a comment about them on her MySpace page. Other than that, they could not be dated.

Today, Mercede Johnston, Levi Johnston, and Sherrie Johnston (their mother) appeared on the Tyra Banks show. In the background, numerous still photos were shown.

Including this one:



I've got news for everyone. Mercede is wearing exactly the same outfit, down to the earrings, as the photos released last year. Her hair is identical. The baby appears to be wearing the same outfit. Levi is sitting in the same chair in the Palin kitchen.
Compare for yourself:



This is NOT a photo of Levi with Tripp Johnston, allegedly born December 27, 2008.

This is a photo of Levi Johnston cradling tenderly Trig Palin, allegedly born April 18, 2008. It was taken the same day as the photos that Mercede put up on her MySpace page, some time before May 5th 2008.

Why in the world would this photo be selected for release on the Tyra Banks show unless Mercede is trying to send us a message, loud and clear? Surely, if Tripp IS Levi's child (and Trig is the son of his ex future mother-in-law) there would be no earthly reason to release photos of Trig with Levi on a show that was supposed to be about current events, i.e., Tripp's birth and the current relationship with Tripp's mother. But.. someone in the Johnston clan selected this photo. Of Levi cuddling Trig. Now almost a year ago. Intentionally. So I... and other "anonymous bloggers..." would see it. And we have.

Mercede, message received. Thank you.

MySpace Part One

First, this post has been greatly delayed as I struggled – with the assistance of the researchers who compiled all of this material for me – concerning the issue of just how much material to post – and how to present it.

Ultimately, we have made the decision not to release nearly as much information on the blog as we had originally intended. Instead, we will be posting much longer – and more detailed information – on the website proper.

We've ultimately made the following decision that both for this blog post and for the web posting of more extensive data, only Bristol Palin, Levi Johnston, and Mercede Johnston will be identified by name. (The names of all other MySpace teens (regardless of age) have been changed to completely random "fake" names). Bristol, Levi, and Mercede have voluntarily spoken to the press; thus they are now considered "fair game." There is considerable evidence that Bristol has made misleading statements to the press on more than one occasion, if not outright lied.

At this time, I plan on doing three posts concerning the MySpace material: this one, a second which discusses an overview, and a third which considers explicitly whether or not Bristol was pregnant at the time she was announced to have been pregnant (i.e., roughly early April to late December 2008.)

Is Bristol Palin Trig’s mother? This is a question which, frankly, we preferred to avoid as much as possible for months, instead focusing on the discrepancies in Sarah Palin’s implausible tale. The rumors and reports that Bristol Palin was pregnant originated well before she could possibly have been pregnant with Tripp. This is beyond dispute. If Tripp Palin was born the last week in December, 2008, Bristol would have become pregnant around the first week in April 2008. Yet Sue Williams, a Wasilla caterer who spoke to the press within hours of Palin's nomination as VP (and who is NOT a Palin supporter) claimed that Willow's eighth grade boyfriend was telling people in Wasilla early in April, prior to Trig's birth on April 18th, that Bristol was pregnant. So positive was Ms. Williams of her information that she insisted late in August that Bristol was well into her third trimester and due "soon." Sarah discussed (and denied) rumors that Bristol was pregnant with Bill McAllister (at the time a news reporter, though later he became her press secretary) at some point before she announced her own pregnancy on March 5th. In one of my earlier posts, these reports of pregnancy rumors and of her unexplained absence from school were detailed in depth. There has also been much discussion on the blog about Bristol’s absence from any events from late fall until spring, with the possible (and as yet unconfirmed) exception of an event for the American Heart Association on February 15, 2008.

The MySpace material in many cases raises as many questions as it answers. On this blog, I have tried to avoid including information that, while shocking, has no bearing on the central question of who Trig's mother is or the general credibility of the Palin family. We plan on releasing far more of the MySpace material soon on the website itself, largely in a "raw" format. Readers will be free to peruse the information and draw their own conclusions.

One of the first questions that will be asked is how we verified who any of these people are. How can we be sure? For those who are not familiar with how MySpace works, I will give a brief overview. There are two kinds of information that are available on MySpace. The first is material on pages that are public. Public means exactly that. Anyone can see and peruse the entire page. We can see photos, music choices, quotes, and other information he or she has posted identifying him or herself. For those who have never been on MySpace, someone's "front page" on MySpace is a bit like a scrapbook page that is public, created for everyone to look at.

There is no requirement on MySpace that a person use his or her real name. Often people do, but equally often they do not. When a young person posts a picture of himself and says, "My name is Joe Smith and I go to Such and So High School," it is usually easy to verify that that person is who he say he is. Sometimes, of course, the person does not use a real name, though quite often they do identify themselves accurately as to town and school, so there is an additional step that must be taken, (based on photos and friend connections) to identify that "Hot Sue" for example, is Susan Jones. In our case, for example, Mercede Johnston's MySpace handle is "Sadie."

The second way to get information about people is that we can see comments ON public pages FROM the person, even if that person's page itself is private or in some cases deleted from MySpace completely. In this case, it is often very difficult to be sure of what some comments mean, because we are only seeing half of the comments, like hearing half of a phone conversation. Sometimes you can get a very good idea of what the conversation is about; other times, you are lost.

Bristol Palin's page was deleted (or possibly made private, then later deleted) prior to her mother's pick as VP, though we do not know when. In fact, after June 2007, there is only one comment that we can find on anyone's page that mentions Bristol by name, though there are several comments that use her initials that we are sure refer to her. This is very odd, since Bristol was a popular girl who had many friends. Furthermore, according to the McCain campaign and media reports it was common knowledge that Levi and Bristol were expecting a baby in late 2008. Did this warrant a comment on NO ONE'S page? Not one person thought to mention it? Or – more likely – were comments "scrubbed" at some point? Scrubbing is very difficult to prove after the fact, unless one is watching for it prior to the scrubbing occurring. For example, we know comments that had been visible on some of the Wasilla friends' pages through November 2008, were removed in November, after the election. We can prove this easily because we have screen shots of the pages both before and after. But since no one was watching the pages of Wasilla Alaska teenagers prior to late August, 2008, the full story is very difficult to piece together. However, one oddity we noted: one young woman, a close friend of Bristol's, who we will refer to as "Fanny" normally received dozens of comments a month. Suddenly, in a period of more than a month in the Spring of 2007, absolutely none. We can verify Fanny was active on MySpace – she was leaving comments on other friends' pages but her page was scrubbed completely. Proof of anything? No. Mysterious? Very.

So, how do we know what (few) comments remain are actually from Bristol Palin? We can see that the comments come from someone named "Bristol," but how do we know for sure who this is? We can be sure it's Bristol Palin, for the following reason: comments that were made by this Bristol can be indisputably tied to known events in Bristol Palin's life, as follows:

1. On October 12th, 2006, Bristol commented on a friend's page that she would be driving in four days. This corresponds exactly to Bristol Palin's sixteenth birthday.
2. In June of 2007, Bristol made several references to working at Nordstrom's. From Sarah Palin's financial disclosure forms, we know that Bristol Palin worked at Nordstrom's at that time.
3. On one occasion, Bristol makes very negative comments about having to attend an event in Glenallen Alaska. We know from Sarah Palin's schedule that an event, which included the "First Family" occurred on that day.

Does the MySpace page material answer with any certainty whether Bristol Palin gave birth to Trig OR whether Sarah did not? No, it does not. But it gives clear glimpses into the Palin family life, and specifically into Bristol Palin, that are sharply at odds with the all American family that was portrayed to the media. This is particularly relevant coming now, as Levi Johnston has purportedly told Tyra Banks (in an interview to be shown tomorrow) that he was allowed to spend the night openly at the Palin home, even though, according to him, Gov. Palin almost certainly knew that he and Bristol were having sex. I believe that, in spite of Palin's heated denials, this is confirmed from her daughter's own MySpace comments. At one point, she jokes with Levi that he apparently left some clothes at her home.

The view of teen life in Wasilla Alaska gleaned from the fifty or so MySpace pages that our researchers have followed diligently shows a sad, disappointing, in fact, very upsetting tale. If these are the family values that the McCain campaign hoped Gov. Palin would bring to America, all I can say is "no thanks." Drug and alcohol use is detailed, even boasted about regularly, by teens as young as fourteen and fifteen. Young women who are no more than fifteen discuss who is f***ing whom with the ease of a discussion about who will pick up the pizza. Bristol Palin, presented to the country by her mother as an honor student, at age 16 does not spell the word "decided" correctly.

Coming tomorrow: Six specific things the MySpace analysis shows us.