More from Cajun Boy

Cajun Boy has a long post this morning on the purported existence of a significant article from a major publication concerning the inconsistencies surrounding the birth of Trig Palin in April, 2008.

He had given all of us a teaser about this article about a week ago, but would say nothing of who had it or even what the topic was, though most of us who had been reading the blog assumed it was something to do with "Babygate" instead of "Troopergate" or "Travelgate," since our Boy had done several posts on the baby-having questions. He'd indicated that there was a possibility that we'd see the article last weekend.

Well, no joy. (Maybe the article is trapped in the same vortex as her medical records.)

Now, today, however he gives us new hope with new details. He confirms that

there will most certainly be a host of new questions to arise about Sarah Palin and the odd circumstances surrounding the birth of her young son Trig, as the faint scent of deception will likely intensify into a rather strong stench.

(Sounds like what little old Audrey has been saying for a month... but never mind.)

He also confirms that the publication that is sitting on the story is the Anchorage Daily News.

Here's the link to his full article. I strongly suggest everyone reads it in full. Cajun gives us some ideas and options for encouraging the Anchorage Daily News to release the info they have.

I sure hope they do it today as opposed to the day before the election.

Or they could just give it to me.

Off Topic - But Not Sure Quite What to Make of This...

When Sarah Palin was selected as the Republican Party's Vice Presidential nominee, she was widely regarded as a complete unknown, a long shot, a total surprise. But there have always been the "dark side," that has suggested that this nomination was a done deal, a long long time ago. I never thought there was even a snowball's chance this was true...

As I have delved into the shaping of Gov. Palin, I have been continually taken aback at how much talk there really was regarding her as a potential VP, going back to the beginning of her term as Alaska's governor.

There's this article from the New Yorker which details her efforts dating to 2007. It's a good place to start and I strongly recommend you read it all.

There's an interview from February 2008 in Washington DC (I believe this was with a local TV station) in which she's asked specifically about the nomination. (Unfortunately I can't find the link for this right now. I know I had it in email, but I apparently never added it to the site. If anyone can find this, please send it to me.) Then there's another from Los Angeles, only a week or so later, in which the topic comes up again. We know that the topic came up at the infamous Republican Governor's Energy Conference in Texas where she was when her labor supposedly began, and she did not rule out accepting the nomination.

And then there's this odd little comment. It's almost a throw-away. I missed it the first few times I read the article, because I was focusing on exactly what was said about Bristol's whereabouts, and when. It's from the article in the Alaska Magazine, which was published in the February 2008 edition, but written, as nearly as I can put it, around December 15th, 2007.

“She can be on the phone with Dick Cheney and have (Republican Senate President) Lyda Green right outside her door, and her kids call and she goes, ‘Oops, hold on,’” said Leighow, the deputy press secretary. “Her kids trump everyone, and I think that’s pretty neat.”

The sentence is here in the context of what a great mom she is... and that's how I read it the first few times I saw it. But... hold on. Dick Cheney? THE Dick Cheney? Vice President of the United States Dick Cheney? The Dark Lord himself?

Why is Dick Cheney calling Sarah Palin before December of 2007?

Am I crazy? Or is this really really odd? And more than a bit troubling?

Photo Sleuths...

We need you.

Here's a photo that's come up a few times in the last few days. I am sure I saw this photo previously, and rejected it as having any relevance to our topic, but I can't remember where I saw it. Now, it's been posted on Flickr with a date of early April. I don't think that's right, but need to pin it down. So where's it from?



Update: WOW! Was that ever quick! (Why can't things happen that fast with my teenagers?)

Alert reader MC has correctly identified the source of the photo: A trip made by Gov. Palin to Dillingham Alaska in June of 2007. It has NO relevance to our timeframe of interest. Places that claim it dates from early April 2008 are incorrect.

Q and A

Is West High School the only high school in Anchorage? Or are there possibly two? Is "Misty" talking about West?

Answer: According to the Anchorage School District website, there are eight high schools in Anchorage. Anchorage is a large city, nearly 250,000 people. It has almost half of the people in Alaska. Yes, Misty is talking about West High School.

Where does Heather Bruce, Bristol's aunt live, in the West High school district in Anchorage, or another one?? I'm not clear also on whether the Palins maintain a home in Anchorage or commute from their Wasilla home? And how many high schools are in each town?

Answer: I do not know Heather Bruce's physical address, but she does live in Anchorage. Gov. Palin has a satellite government office in Anchorage, and during the course of her term, she has worked out of Anchorage more often than Juneau, the state capital. The Palins as far as I know do not have any residence in Anchorage. Gov. Palin commutes from Wasilla to Anchorage (a bit less than one hour). There is one large public high school in Wasilla (about 1200 students), and another school which is listed as public but alternative (with about 200 students.) (Update: An alert reader has provided me with two possible addresses for Heather Bruce, Sarah Palin's sister. I will not publish them here, however, they have been checked for proximity to West High School. Both are less than two miles from West. If either of these addresses are accurate, it is reasonable to say that Heather Bruce probably lives in the West District.)

Also, it sounds as if you're suggesting that maybe Bristol has dropped out?

Answer: As far as can be determined from ANY source, Bristol dropped out of school sometime last winter (during her junior year) and has never been back.

Last, I looked at all those 500 news photos of the recent Palin campaign on the site recommended by a commenter on a recent post. Willow and Piper are in almost all the wide shots on the stage...but never a sign of Bristol. Where are they hiding the poor girl?

Answer: Bristol was seen with the campaign before and during the RNC and then a few times between the RNC and when her mother returned to Alaska around September 10th. She was spotted at her mother's rally in Anchorage on September 14th though as far as I know there are no photos. Between September 14th, she was mentioned a couple of times as being on the campaign, but there were no photos until she was spotted briefly in New York on October 18th. As far as I know she has not been seen since.

New information on School situation; an important piece of info about Willow

Thanks to alert Internet miners (BIG THANKS to Silver Salmon), I have some new info to share this morning.

First, it appears confirmed that, as I suggested, the first winter Sarah Palin was governor (2007), all three of her daughters went to Juneau and attended school. As proof, we have, for Bristol, the basketball photo shown below plus a listing in the honor role for Juneau High School. For Willow, we have a honor role listing (sixth grade). We also have this article from the Anchorage Daily News that discusses family plans and makes it clear that all three daughters are at that time with the family in the state capitol. Only Track is left behind in Wasilla.

Now... here's the larger piece of news. But first - a brief digression. For some weeks, there has been considerable speculation on this board about the possibility that Willow Palin was Trig's mother. Many people have complained about this line of reasoning. I have continued to allow it because I have felt that the individual who has mainly suggested this has kept his reasoning consistently logical. While there is the "ick" factor (in his words), the fact is that if Sarah Palin is NOT Trig's mother, someone has to be. And the only people that Gov. Palin would be willing to cover for would be someone for whom she had a very strong reason for doing so: like a daughter. I also had to concur that the motivation for covering a very young teen's pregnancy would likely be a lot greater than covering for an older teen. For these reasons, plus the fact that the poster has identified himself to me in private email using his real name...and has shown himself willing to have reasonable dialogue about this... I allowed the speculation to continue.

Now, we do have one --- small --- but still telling piece of info about Willow: A listing on Juneau Empire's list of seventh grade honor role, dated 4/17/08, for the third quarter. (Ironically the day before Trig's birth.) This would indicate that Willow did go to Juneau with her mother, her father, and Piper for the legislative session of 2008, and was in school. While it is certainly not "proof positive" it is a far clearer indication that Willow was in school in the period of time immediately preceding Trig's birth than we have ever had before, along with a location: she was in Juneau. While this is not absolute - it would sure be nice to have a photo of her at, say SOME official function - in my mind it certainly pushes the logical speculation back to Bristol's status: Willow appears to be in school and in Juneau, Bristol's whereabouts remain a bit of a mystery.

This is just an aside, but these school grades make me wonder anew about Willow's actual age. As I said in a post many weeks back, when the issue of Willow's role in all this came up initially, I was confused, because she is listed on numerous reliable places as being born in 1995 and others in January of 1994. Now, I am not suggesting any mysteries surrounding Willow's birth (!!!!!) but a 1995 birth year would be far more consistent with her being in seventh grade last year and eighth grade THIS school year. If she is turning 15 in January, it's hard to see her still in eighth grade. Not a big deal, but I thought I would mention it. (I turned 15 after my freshman year in high school.. I think this is pretty typical.)

Oh, and thanks so much to all the people who wrote to me in private email and on the board about my dog. Unfortunately, he had surgery yesterday morning and did not survive. He was a good dog. We will miss him very much.

Quick note about out of order posts

Please note that there is a new post about Bristol's schedule "More About Bristol and School" last winter BELOW the post about comment moderation. I had started the longer post yesterday, but due to some family matters (a sick dog) I could not finish it. Then, this morning I put up a quick post about the comments being moderated. I did not realize that the next post (which had been started earlier) would show up out of order - and with a date of "Sunday" which is when I started it, but not when I finished it!

Probably bloggers more savvy than I could figure out how to change this, but alas, that's not me. So I just wanted to draw everyone's attention to it.

Comment Moderation

The traffic to the blog and website has continued to grow. Obviously, I am excited about this, but with the increased popularity comes problems. Overnight, several extremely long posts - I assume hoping to "crash" the blog - were posted, and today a few comments that contained speculation that I found very inappropriate were posted - and deleted.

My friend Morgan is going to help me moderate comments. Between the two of us, we will look in on the blog every hour or so all day. I am sorry we will lose the quick give and take "dialogue" aspect of commenting, but I don't see that there is a choice at this point.

More about Bristol and School

I would like to comment a bit more in depth about what is known about Bristol and her school situation.

Over the past few days, "Misty K" has commented several times. Misty presents herself as someone who knows Bristol Palin personally... the mother of a young man who attends West High School in Anchorage... and saw Bristol during the time period in question. While we have had several posters from Alaska, Misty is the only person who has ever commented here to state she has first hand knowledge of the situation.

Certainly, Misty provides a few interesting details - she saw Bristol at a hockey game in January, and in her (Misty's) home later that month; she was supposedly at another specific hockey game that Bristol may have attended in February - she's looking for video; she mentions a time line of when her son told her that Bristol was pregnant (late April / early May); Levi Johnston hanging baby crocs from his rear-view mirror.

Is Misty "for real?" We have no way of knowing. She did not accept my invitation to email me privately, and I'm sorry because I really wanted to ask her some very specific questions, one of which was how her son came to know and be friends with Levi Johnston, since they went to different high schools so many miles apart.

She's also posting here anonymously (not that there's anything wrong with that. I've allowed anonymous posting for a reason - so people can feel comfortable with saying what they want. And no one expects anyone to post with a real name and phone number!) But with that greater degree of freedom to comment all readers need to realize that posts must be viewed with a greater degree of questioning. Misty could be exactly who and what she says she is. She could also be someone in a basement in Brooklyn, who comes on the board, posts reasonably several times, and then quietly drops in one piece of info (like the fact that her son said Bristol was pregnant in May) which calls everything else into question. And because she's been calm and credible, and has offered reasonable-sounding facts, people will take her info seriously.

All that having been said, let's examine Misty's statements. Most of what she says seems very consistent with what we know from other, verifiable sources.

Where DO the Palin children go to school? You'd think that a simple question like this would be easy to answer, but I am having trouble coming up with a solid answer.

Sarah Palin was elected governor of Alaska in November, 2006, just a bit under two years ago. Since then, she's come under criticism for being in Juneau, the state capitol, far less than the number of days many people would have expected her to be. There have been varying estimates as to how much actual time she spent in Juneau (as opposed to her satellite office in Anchorage) but it doesn't sound like very much. Politico.com claims it might have been as few as 85 week days since the start of her term twenty or so months ago.

The point of this post is not what sort of job Sarah Palin did or did not do as Governor of Alaska, but to answer a question about where her children lived. This is relevant because Misty states that there was nothing remarkable about Bristol's showing up in Anchorage last winter - it was planned because she didn't want to go to Juneau with her mother for the "120 day" legislative session.

Is this true? Is it consistent with some of our other information? First, according to the state of Alaska government website, the 2008 legislative session ran from January 19th to April 13th, so it's 90 days, not 120. In addition, examining Palin's travel schedule for those months, even during that time, she was not in Juneau consistently. There would seem to be little need to take her children OUT of school in Wasilla and bring them to Juneau, since she wasn't there half the time anyway. (She does seem to keep Piper with her, but a second grader could tolerate two different schools far better than a middle schooler or high schooler.) The second comment I would make is that it does appear that the previous winter (2007), Bristol Palin did attend high school in Juneau (which would have been her mother's first legislative session) because we have a photo of her in a Juneau High School basketball uniform. Perhaps the Palin family tried having all the children with them in Juneau that first winter and found it did not work well.



But we have an interesting glimpse into what the Palin family plans were as of December 2007 from a source that is unimpeachable, the Alaska Magazine article on Palin that was published in their February 2008 issue (but written in mid December). According to this article, as of December, the plan was that Bristol was going to be "staying in the Valley to finish high school." (The "Valley" is local terminology for the Palmer-Wasilla area.)

Then we're told by the National Enquirer that:

When Sarah found out the teen [Bristol] was pregnant by high schooler Levi Johnston, she was actually banished from the house. As part of the cover-up, Palin quickly transferred Bristol to another high school and made her move in with Sarah’s sister Heather 25 miles away!

The Enquirer gives no date, and does not comment beyond this. Most readers perhaps assumed that the reference was to the alleged current pregnancy. And... of course... the Enquirer can hardly be considered a totally reliable source. But, to be fair, they've been correct a lot of the time, particularly recently.

So, hold on. When was this? January? Or May?

Well, we have this:

Mark Okeson, the assistant principal at Wasilla High School, told the Chicago Tribune that Bristol started her junior year last fall, in the town where Sarah Palin grew up.

He said Bristol inexplicably transferred to an Anchorage high school midyear, leaving Levi behind.

"I never heard the story why," he said.

Then from the Anchorage Daily News, on September 1, 2008, from a reporter who had actually spoken to Heather Bruce that day:

Bristol Palin went to West High School in the spring, living with her aunt, Heather Bruce.

Then from our own poster, Misty K:

I just know that my son told me that she did not want to go to school down there [Juneau] and she ended up here [Anchorage] for a month or so.

Misty also tells us that she first saw Bristol in Anchorage in January, but then Bristol left school because she'd done "distance learning classes" and finished early. But... she was only a junior last year, not a senior, and we have no record whatsoever that she did finish even her junior year to say nothing of high school.

So, putting it all together:

As late as December 2007, the Palin family is planning to have Bristol remain in Wasilla to finish high school, and not go to Juneau with Todd, Sarah, and Piper. We have no information about Willow. (Correction: Based on honor role records, it appears that Willow was in Juneau, in eighth grade, in the spring of 2008.)

"Midyear" Bristol is suddenly removed from Wasilla High School and shows up in Anchorage. The story put out in Anchorage seems to have been that she is in Anchorage because she didn't want to go to Juneau. Fine... except in December there were no plans for her to go to Juneau. So what changed?

The National Enquirer specifically states that the decision for her to live with her aunt was a direct result of her mother finding out she was pregnant. Her aunt, making obviously no mention of a pregnancy, told the Anchorage Daily News that Bristol lived with her "in the spring."

We don't know how long she actually attended West High School, but it doesn't seem to be very long. Misty says about a month, maybe a bit longer. This would mean she left around the end of February or the beginning of March. Given the due date of May 15th, she would have been around 28 - 30 weeks of pregnancy.

Sarah Palin announced her pregnancy on March 6th.

The fact is that, pulling together from all these disparate places, the ONLY piece of info that Misty gives us that doesn't fit with a pregnant Brisol in late 2007/early 2008 is that her son said Bristol WAS pregnant by early May, which of course supports what the McCain campaign is saying.

As I have said so many times, draw your own conclusions. I think, however, it is certainly reasonable to suggest that right around Christmas, 2007 something happened. Something changed.

What?

Photo Date Resolved; Breastfeeding a Down's Baby; Bristol Palin at SNL?

I have updated the previous post to reflect the info that the photo dates from 2006 (or earlier) so has no relevance to the time frame we are interested in. Here is a full version of the same photo.




Yes we do have numerous references to Sarah Palin breastfeeding and the fact that she was photographed with Trig in a nursing sling is certainly an argument in her favor in this matter. However, I have not seen a single statement from anyone who has actually been physically present when she fed him.

Furthermore, as a lactation consultant I know that breastfeeding Down's babies is almost always MUCH more difficult than feeding a normal newborn. They tend to have poor muscle tone and require a lot more patience and effort to feed. In fact on several occasions among my own clients, women who had successfully nursed previous children made the decision to pump breastmilk and simply bottle feed it to their Down's infants, because they felt the feeding process was so frustrating for both them and the infants that it was not a net benefit. I have also worked with a couple of women who did eventually breastfeed successfully, but it took a lot of time and effort in the first weeks. I have never worked with a mother who simply nursed a Down's infant spontaneously with no problems.

The point of this is we have concrete reports of Sarah Palin in her office in Anchorage (almost an hour from her home in Wasilla) on the Monday after Trig's birth, and photos of her giving a speech the next day. This has never rung true to me knowing that the third to fourth day is the day that the milk really comes in, your breasts feel like hot rocks, often your baby still doesn't really have the "hang" of nursing (to say nothing of the fact that this baby was Down's)... not a day I would have wanted to put on a business suit and give a speech!

No, there are no pills you can take to "start breastfeeding." It is possible to re-lactate, but it is not an easy process, and requires many months of prep and pumping to stimulate the breasts before the adopted baby arrives. There's no way Sarah Palin could have pulled something like this off without her staff knowing that she was doing it.

Regarding Bristol looking "way pregnant" at SNL. I have suggested the possibility since the beginning of this blog that Bristol may well be pregnant, just not as pregnant as has been claimed. If she is Trig's mother and became pregnant around the first of June, she would have been 22-23 weeks pregnant the night of the SNL show. This is not too early to look pretty pregnant with a second pregnancy. The one quick look that we got of her that same day did not show me someone who is "huge" by any means.



I find it odd that no photos of the family arriving at the show were put up anywhere, either by the news media or just folks who had cameras with them. Her appearance was big news and I would have thought the arrival would have been photographed. I am going to try to confirm with SNL/NBC on Monday if Bristol was there and if there are any photos available. It has been posted elsewhere that Bristol was not at the show, but I can't find where I saw that originally.

Update from Audrey

I noticed the comment that no one had heard from me in a while.

I am a real person with a real life and a real family. Although I am very fortunate in being able to work in "free-lance" capability, I had several unchangeable commitments for this time period that predated any mention of Sarah Palin on 8/29/08. Unfortunately, this weekend is one of them. I am trying very hard to do a blog post - that I've been working out in my head all day - before I have to be somewhere in about half an hour!

I am as curious about Cajun Boy's post as all of you are. I know nothing more than what he has said publicly. I have corresponded with him, and he has told me that while he regrets it, he is bound by the word he gave to his source not to say anything. So... I am waiting with baited breath!

Meanwhile, here is a photograph I had never seen before tonight. As much as I am able to figure out, it has been said that this dates from February 2008. Anyone know concretely where it came from, and a verifiable date? Scott helpfully posted the link to this, but I am completely mystified by the "Democratic Underground" website and find the threaded discussion board terribly difficult to navigate.



(Update: Based on a link in the comment section to a full version of the picture plus a blog post in which the photo contains it's pretty clear that this photo dates from fall/early winter 2006.)

Here's what's coming:

A post about Bristol's school history, with some comments and questions. Hopefully I will be able to finish this tonight before I have another family commitment.

A long post - tomorrow - about the four pictures from Mercedes Johnston's website, that so many have asked about.

Here's a reminder:

There's a large website affiliated with this blog. To get there, you click on the "Site Home Page" link. I mention this AGAIN because of all the comments that we are getting regarding "have you seen this, have you seen that?" While I am thrilled at all the dialogue, for example, not only was the link to the Sarah Palin three day postpartum interview up on the site for a month, a full typed transcript has been available.

Check back - lots happening. If you don't hear from me again tonight, I promise there will be more tomorrow!

Audrey

Sarah Palin's "Early Testing" - Questions Revisted

Although I have posted about this in the past, hearing in Sarah Palin's own voice that she knew at thirteen weeks of gestation that Trig had Down's caused me to want to revisit this topic.

This week, Sarah Palin gave a phone interview with Dr. James Dobson. You can listen to the whole interview here. A part two to the interview is available here.

I cannot shake the feeling that this is yet another false statement.

Gov. Palin does not state here specifically that she had amniocentesis performed. I did not have time this morning to review every source, but I cannot pin down if she EVER actually said that she had an amnio done. It's been assumed, but has she ever said it? What she has said repeatedly is "early testing." If someone can provide me with a link where she is quoted as having said that she had an amnio, I would appreciate it. Here's what was actually said in People.

PEOPLE: Gov. Palin, when you were 13 weeks pregnant, last December, you had an amniocentesis that determined Trig had Down syndrome.
SARAH: I was grateful to have all those months to prepare. I can't imagine the moms that are surprised at the end. I think they have it a lot harder.

First, she did not correct the statement that she had an amnio, but she did not confirm it either. Second, if she was due May 15th, she would have been significantly farther along in December, 17-20 weeks. She would have been thirteen weeks the first week in November. Significant? Not really. It's just one more thing that's a "little bit" wrong. Why can nothing this woman says be really transparent or clear? Why could she not have said, "Well, actually, that was wrong. The test was performed in November."? She might not remember the exact date, but she's going to know during which calendar month and how many weeks pregnant she was when she had the test!

Here's a brief paragraph that describes the risks of early amniocentesis.

This and subsequent reports from the trial demonstrated that compared to midtrimester amniocentesis, early amniocentesis was associated with a 4-fold risk of a technically difficult (twice the risk of requiring multiple needle insertions) or unsuccessful procedure (1.6% vs. 0.4%), a 10-fold risk of chromosome culture failure (2.4% vs. 0.25%), a higher rate of fluid leakage following the procedure (3.5% vs. 1.7%), a greater risk for pregnancy losses (7.6% vs. 5.9%), and a significantly higher risk (1.3% vs. 0.1%) of having a baby with talipes equinovarus (club foot).

There is another test that is often performed early in pregnancy, Chorionic Villus Sampling. In this test, a small piece of placental tissue is extracted, either through the cervix using a small catheter, or through the abdominal wall, using a needle. I don't want to bog this post down with a lot of medical information, as there are many internet sources for more info if you want it, but the research I reviewed this morning seems to indicate that transabdominal is safer and is typically the procedure that is done. Ultrasound is always used in conjunction with the procedure to guide the technician. In most sources, the procedure is listed as having between a 1 in 100 and 1 in 200 risk of causing a miscarriage.

Other studies will show slightly different results. But there is NO doubt that early amniocentesis and early CVS both carry higher risks than traditional later procedures.

Every source I have been able to find agrees on one thing: the only reason to do testing this early is to allow women who have some reason to believe there might be a problem to opt for abortion sooner, when the procedure is less traumatic. There is absolutely no medical reason for someone who will not abort to do the test this early, when there is a greater risk of CAUSING ABORTION. No medical reason. Period.

Most pro-life women choose to skip invasive testing completely.

By claiming that she was tested at thirteen weeks, Sarah Palin has opened herself for some serious questioning. Of course, no one seems to be doing it! I sense that there must be an undercurrent of discomfort and the "whoa!" factor among a lot of pro-life women who are at the same time, unwilling to call her on it.

If Sarah Palin was truly pregnant, the only reason I can think of for her to have testing that early would be so that she could abort early if there was a problem, which of course would call her entire public commitment to the pro-life movement to be called into question.

I have stated earlier on this blog that I think this early testing statement was in fact made to cover for an inexplicably long period between when she should have known she was pregnant (say from seven-eight weeks (early October) at the latest) and when she would have found out that Trig had Down's (which would have traditionally not been until mid or late December, ten weeks later) during which she told no one she was pregnant. She has claimed that she told no one because she was struggling to come to terms with the fact that she was going to have a "special" child. And certainly, one can accept that for privacy reasons she may not have announced it to the entire state of Alaska at this point.

But if she had known for ten weeks that she WAS pregnant, but did NOT know her unborn child had Down's, the story falls apart on the personal level. What woman wouldn't tell her own mother (who she is supposedly quite close to)? Her sisters? Her teenaged daughters? Some trusted staff members?

I suggest two possibilities. Either Gov. Palin was never pregnant at all, and this entire tale is a fabrication

OR

Gov. Palin was pregnant but actually never knew that Trig had Down's, and all of this has been put out to enhance the pro-life credentials.

Because for a pro-life woman, testing at thirteen weeks makes no sense whatsoever.

Some Questions and Comments

I thought I'd take this opportunity to address a couple of issues that have come up repeatedly, though I have never addressed them in a blog post or on the website. But I do keep getting email and I want everyone to know that I am aware of the issues.

The first issue is the birth of a child, to an "Amber and Levi" on April 18th at a hospital about 45 minutes away from Mat-Su, Alaska Regional. Picture comparisons have been done and many people think the babies look similar. It's been suggested that this was somehow Bristol and Levi's baby, born at a different hospital, and then, I guess the thinking goes, brought over to Mat-Su.

There are two problems with this scenario. The first is that this baby is listed on the website as being born in the afternoon on April 18th. Sarah Palin's parents, the Heaths, gave an TV interview at Mat-Su during the afternoon of the 18th. I don't know the exact time, but it was filmed in time to be run on the evening news that night. As far as I know, there is no available video from that broadcast - I've looked - but the station's website does have a screen shot from the video. Unless you want to get really bizarre (stunt-double babies, et cetera) there's no plausible explanation for the fact that the second baby was not even born at the time the Heaths were probably doing the interview, with a newborn in arms. Of course, people have suggested that the info at Alaska Regional's website could have been altered in some way, but that leads us to the second problem:

Which is, that listing on the website is optional. I have no idea what percentage of babies born at Alaska Regional are on their website, but I have researched Mat-Su (it appears to be about 2/3rds) and just out of curiosity I called OB at the hospital where my husband works, and I was told by that hospital that it's about 75%. So NOT listing a child would likely raise no eyebrows; no one would think it "odd" or comment in any way. If you're trying to hide something, you'd just quietly opt out of being listed.

Don't get me wrong - I have wondered from the beginning if Trig was really born in that hospital that night, since there just seems to be SO much wrong with the story. But I doubt very much that the "Amber and Levi's" child on Alaska Regional's website is Trig Palin.

The second thing that's come up on various websites from the beginning is a blog post, from someone who from all appearances seems completely neutral in this situation, stating that she saw Sarah Palin pregnant in the airport sometime late in March 2008 (though she did not make her post until late April, after Trig was born.) I have not made much of this report, but it does exist and I have gotten enough email about it that I felt it should be addressed.

First, the picture that is on the website does not show enough of Sarah Palin for us to draw any conclusion. However, the post's author - Elizabeth Eubanks - states flatly that she turned and saw Gov. Palin "pregnant."

The problem with this is, as I have suggested all along, that the allegation against Gov. Palin is that she may have faked a pregnancy. To do that, you have to look pregnant at some point. I think it's pretty clear that from about mid-March on, Sarah Palin did appear "somewhat" pregnant, though as I have said how consistently is another matter.

So while I am certainly not discounting this report - it is a legitimate sighting of Gov. Palin by someone who has no ulterior motive for saying she looked expectant - I don't know why it's any more credible or important that the fact that Andrea Gusty, who was the reporter interviewer speaking to Gov. Palin in this photo



and saying that this is an accurate picture of how she looked that day.

Third, thank you to all who sent links today of Sarah Palin getting off the plane, followed by one of her daughters. I believe that this is Willow, not Bristol.

Here is the link if you want to see for yourself. Let me know if you disagree. The girls look very much alike, but it is clear the young woman in this video is not pregnant.

A Startling Revelation from the Wasilla Project

Several days ago, I mentioned the Wasilla Project and even provided links to their videos on my links page. They've released three so far, one concerning Gov. Palin's "fiscally conservative" credentials (for example, redecorating her office when she was mayor to the tune of $50,000 - bet THAT was some nice furniture), one concerning the controversy surrounding the town's decision not to pay for the "forensic rape kits" used when a woman reported a rape (supposedly around $1000. each. Hmmm. One office redecoration = fifty rape kits), and a third discussing her religious affiliation.

I have to confess that while I was doing the links, and trying to update the page, I was listening to the videos but I did not give them my full attention. Well, thanks to my friend Morgan - who did watch them all the way through - we now have spotted something rather surprising that frankly I am shocked no one else seems to have picked up again.

Here's the shocker: During the time Sarah Palin was mayor, her church became involved in taking over the board of Mat-Su Regional Hospital. Yes, you read correctly. The very hospital where Trig Palin was supposedly born on April 18th was (at least in the past) made up almost entirely of those who were involved with Sarah Palin's church.

Here's the exact quote from the video:

"During the time Sarah Palin was mayor, her church became involved in taking over the board of the local hospital. [Note: the video never says "Mat-Su Regional Hospital" by name, but at this point in the video they are showing the entrance of that hospital.] The more conservative, fundamentalist churches, over a period of three or four years, were able to elect and control the operating board of the hospital. At the first meeting where they had control, they passed a resolution ending all abortions at the hospital. The Wasilla Assembly of God and its membership were a key leader in this group."

You can watch the video here:



I am going to attempt to do a bit more research into who these people were - and the exact time frame. Sarah Palin first became mayor in 1996, and the video states that it took 3-4 years for the takeover to be accomplished. But the video also seems to say that in 1997 "After a lengthy battle, the Alaska Supreme Court overturned the hospital's ban on abortion in November, 1997." So the time frames here do not add up.

I will try to obtain more information on this issue - including specific names of board members, etc. What is very clear, however, is that there were at least in the past some DEEP ties between Mat-Su Regional Hospital's board AND Sarah Palin's church.

Now consider Gov. Palin's "mad dash" to reach Mat-Su Hospital on April 17th, 2008 .

Draw whatever conclusions you like.

A Little More Medical Information

Several people have asked specifically about Down's deliveries, and how common heart defects are - and how reliably they can be diagnosed. This from my husband:

I had a few moments to speak to an obstetrical colleague this morning and lay out the circumstances surrounding the birth of Trig Palin. His observations were as follows:

Amniocentesis is generally performed sometime after fourteen weeks of pregnancy, generally from fourteen to seventeen weeks. In modern times it is always done in conjunction with ultrasound, which may or may not identify cardiac anomalies at that time, because the fetus is so small.

If the amnio comes back with a diagnosis of trisomy 21, or Down's, there are always followup ultrasounds done, because of the very high incidence of cardiac and other anomalies. Generally by twenty weeks gestation most such anomalies can be identified. Certainly by thirty-five weeks or so, any heart anomalies will be detected and characterized as to what treatment will be needed at birth, if any.

Family practice physicians generally deliver only low-risk pregnancies, however there are FPs who have done a one-year fellowship in OB, and they are highly qualified, so it is entirely possible Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, with proper training, could deliver a Down's baby with known cardiac anomalies. However, someone with this much training would never deliver such a child in the backwoods; they would need the pediatric backup provided at a large institution. Of course, IF there were ultrasounds done and IF there were no significant heart defects, she could certainly deliver the baby at more rural hospital, such as Mat-Su.

So, with all the proper circumstances, it is very possible to safely deliver a Down's baby in the backwoods, but after having said this, the good doctor observed, "This does not pass the smell test; there is something very wrong here."

I agree.

Also, as a final point, I would like to say that when I was speaking to my colleague, I did not mention some of the other specifics of the birth that are known, for example that her amniotic membranes had been ruptured 24 hours when she arrived at the hospital, or that she was 4-5 weeks early. I will ask him about this the next time I see him.

From Audrey: When all is said and done, I still can't get past one simple fact: So much could be resolved by the press conference I have been asking for for a month: Cathy Baldwin Johnson, accompanied by the CEO of Mat-Su, standing up and stating that Trig Palin was born in that hospital on April 18th, that Cathy Baldwin Johhnson was the physician in attendance, and that Sarah Palin is Trig's biological mother. Three things. No embarrassing or private obstetrical details, just a basic statement of fact that should take less than thirty seconds to provide.

What is the big deal? Doctors speak to the press all the time. I lived in central Virginia during two *big* medical stories - Christopher Reeve's terrible accident and the infamous "baby swap" both of which involved the University of Virginia Hospital. Good Lord, those docs were on TV every day... you couldn't shut them up. HIPAA notwithstanding, there's no problem giving your physician permission to speak to the press if you want to.

Cathy Baldwin-Johnson's silence is the loudest proof of all that something is being hidden. What, I cannot say with confidence. But something.

Now we hear that Palin *might* release her medical records, and she went out of the way to state that her records will prove she had five children. We'll see. These are the same people that gave us WMD in Iraq, so pardon my pointing out that giving us Trig Palin in Palmer Alaska probably would not be too much of an obstacle.

What Does Photographic Evidence Tell Us?

I thought I'd comment on this question briefly, after reading a comment from a reader yesterday that Gov. Palin looked heavy and as if she had had a baby in the Philadelphia Zoo photo. First, that commenter mentioned that "it looks as if she had a baby two months earlier." Trig's birth would have three months prior to the date of this picture (4/17 to 7/17) not two. Not that it makes that much difference, but I did want to correct that.

Obviously, I have put on this website a fair amount of weight to photos that exist from December 2007 almost to the time of Trig Palin's birth in which this 43-44 year old woman on her fifth pregnancy doesn't look pregnant at all or looks barely pregnant or, then rather abruptly, looks significantly expectant. I have also, however, made it clear that - if a pregnancy was being "faked" the existence of some photos in which someone appears pregnant would not be that remarkable. It would be hard to fake a pregnancy without looking pregnant at some point.

That having been said, consider the following: Here's a photo probably most of you have not seen before.



It's a look we've seen for Gov. Palin often during March and April 2008. Colorful, full, scarf draped over her midsection, same (I think) black jacket. Is this a previously undiscovered photo from the months "in question" (March and April)? No. In fact this was taken on August 9, 2008 - four full months after Trig's birth. Yet I could have dropped this as a "date unknown" into any of the pregnancy discussions and we would have been dissecting it rigorously.

Now, consider this photo:



This is Gov. Palin on May 15, 2008 - one day shy of four weeks after Trig's birth. I'd say she's pretty slim here... appears far slimmer in fact than she does in the Philadelphia Zoo picture.

One more exhibit:


I show this simply because we have gotten comments here and there about the possibility of Gov. Palin's face "looking full" in some pictures around the time of the birth. These two pictures were taken the same day in August 2008. One is flattering, one is not a particularly flattering angle - and her face does look heavier. But she's not pregnant here, it's just the camera.

The point is simple... photos tell us a lot but they don't tell us everything.

Bristol's pregnancy rumors revisited

There are several posts recently which have asked for a review of the "Bristol is pregnant" rumors. I think it's probably a good idea to summarize everything in one place.

Here is what we know definitively.

1. According to Palin's own spokesperson, Bill McAllister, Sarah Palin approached him - before Sarah's pregnancy was announced - to (and I am paraphrasing here) reassure him that rumors that existed that Bristol was pregnant were not true. This would have to have been BEFORE March 6, 2008.

2. A post was placed on a gossip board (reddit.com) on April 8 2008 stating specifically that rumors were widespread that the Sarah Palin pregnancy announcement was a cover-up for Bristol's being pregnant. The post received very few responses, but one person claiming to be from Palmer (right next to Wasilla) stated that he/she had heard the same thing.

These two items prove unequivocally that rumors did exist in Alaska before Trig's birth that Bristol, not Sarah, was pregnant, that Sarah was aware of them, and that she made at least some attempt to rebut them.

3. Wasilla caterer Sue Williams said on August 29th that Willow's boyfriend had been telling people in April before Trig was born that Bristol was pregnant. Sue Williams, however, is claiming that the pregnancy that was discussed then was still ongoing, the same pregnancy that the McCain campaign announced the next day. Williams states that Bristol was (as of 8/29) well into her third trimester (so seven to eight months at least).

4. We have the McCain campaign stating that Bristol was "around five months" as of 9/1.

5. We have Levi Johnston who has been identified as Bristol child's father who has stated that the child is due 12/18/08.

6. The National Enquirer has stated, without providing any date reference, that Bristol was kicked out of the house by Sarah when she found out she was pregnant and sent to live with her aunt and (according to the Anchorage Daily News) was to attend West High School in Anchorage. On September 1, 2008, the aunt Heather Bruce seems to have confirmed that this did occur and it was "in the spring" that Bristol lived (or was supposed to live) with her. The assistant principal at Wasilla High School has stated that Bristol was removed from that high school "last fall." (i.e, the fall of 2007)

We also have unconfirmed gossip from a variety of sources that the pregnancy was common knowledge at Anchorage West High School, the school that Bristol was to have attended after leaving Wasilla High School in the fall of 2007. I also have received info from another reporter who has spoken to an Alaskan government official who has stated that according to this man's daughter, who attends West High School, Bristol attended there briefly "before Christmas" and did not return after the holidays.

Misty on our board has stated that she is from the Palmer/Wasilla area of Alaska and is claiming first hand knowledge that people saw Bristol pregnant this summer and that Levi was saying in early May that he was going to be a daddy... even providing us an interesting detail of "baby crocs hanging from the rear view mirror."

The problem is at this point it's impossible to find an explanation that fits all of the statements. She could not have been pregnant last fall and taken out of Wasilla High School and still pregnant now. She had to have given birth at some point. (Of course, there are alternate explanations such as a miscarriage, but with no proof, it's really a waste of time to start going down these splinter paths.)

Although it has been widely stated that the story that was put out (at some point) to explain Bristol's absence from school was that she had "mono," I can't find any concrete source for that. This was stated by the Daily Kos writer and others from the beginning of this controversy in late August, and has been repeated endlessly, but where that statement came from initially I don't know.

First, it's pretty clear that Sue Williams' statement - that Bristol's current pregnancy was already advanced enough in early April for middle schoolers to be talking about it - is wrong. She would have had to become pregnant in February at the latest.. which would make her due now. That seems very unlikely based on photographic evidence from July (she doesn't look pregnant at all), early September (she looks a bit pregnant) and last week (hard to tell, but little if any change from September.)

Second, it's very difficult to reconcile the National Enquirer/Heather Bruce/assistant principal at Wasilla High information with a pregnancy that did not commence until April. If Bristol is due 12/18 this gives a date of conception right around 4/1. She herself would not have known until mid April and could easily have hidden it from family for a month or more, which takes us well into May.

So that leaves:

1. Bristol was pregnant with Trig last winter. The gossip Sue Williams reports refers to that pregnancy. Speculation: The family had mostly managed to conceal the pregnancy, so what was assumed to be a fairly "early" pregnancy in April was already well advanced. Bristol was due May 15th but gave birth a month early.
1a. Bristol is currently pregnant again, but not as far along as the McCain campaign has stated. She would likely be somewhere around 4 to 4 1/2 months as of 10/20, with a due date of mid February.
1b. Bristol is not currently pregnant. It is a fabrication of the McCain campaign designed to rebut the rumors that Sarah Palin is not Trig's mother.

2. Bristol was NOT pregnant with Trig last winter, and the time line which has been presented by the McCain campaign and Levi Johnston, giving her due date in mid December, is true, or nearly so.

Was Bristol visibly pregnant this summer? We have two photos both from the same week in July, and she does not look at all pregnant in either.

However, according to the "due in December" time line, she would have only been 17-18 weeks here, so probably not showing much if this is a first pregnancy. And "summer" is a long time. Summer could be the last week in August.

Here's the bottom line.

I am suspicious for a variety of reasons. I don't think it's necessary to rehash what has been said about Bristol's whereabouts last winter/spring. However, I can think of no plausible reason for the campaign to continue to hide her at this point unless... they have something to hide. It reminds me of the line from Juno: "I'm already pregnant... what other shenanigans can I get into?" We've been told she's pregnant and from comments (and one random sighting) she appears to be with the campaign. Again yesterday (10/20) and today (10/21), Willow and Piper were on stage with their mother... no Bristol. This is not Victorian times where the sight of a gravid belly is going to set us all to swooning. God knows, her own mother made it clear what she thinks of "Neanderthals" who think that women can't work, be pregnant, and care for children simultaneously. So why hide her away?

And again ... I'm stuck with the same conclusion I've been coming to since early September... because she's not nearly as pregnant as she is supposed to be... baby crocs notwithstanding.

Insurance Questions

Questions about whether or not insurance issues might have motivated a deception have been swirling since the very beginning of this.

Here is my read on this. I don't think this is or was a primary motivator here. Here's why. Legally adopted children become for all intents and purposes absolutely equivalent to naturally born children. There would have been nothing to prevent the Palins from legally adopting their daughter's child, starting proceedings immediately after birth, thus guaranteeing any and all benefits to him for life, exactly the same as would have come to any child Sarah gave birth to.

Not only would this have benefited the child, but I think it would have spoken very well of the Palins. Had they handled an adoption openly but still discretely (I hope people don't think that's a contradiction) I would be 100% behind that choice and I would defend their right not to name the mother, even if "everyone" knew the baby was really Bristol's. That really would be a private family matter, no one else's business but the Palin's.

Of course, a daughter's birth might not have been covered (I have no idea how the State of Alaska Government Workers' Health Care plan might handle this) but the Palins are not poor. They certainly could have afforded to pay cash for a daughter's birth if they had had to.

So... let me know if you think I'm wrong here but I find it difficult to see why anyone would plan and attempt to carry out a deception like this, when the child could have been legally adopted within a few months of birth. If the deception happened, as I believe it may have, I think there's another reason besides insurance.

Res ipsa loquitur

Bristol and Trig - July 17, 2008



The thing speaks for itself.

Sarah Palin's Health Transparency: NOT

The New York Times today has published a expose on the lack of health records released during the election by the candidates. The bulk of the article, probably fairly, focuses on John McCain since he has had the longest and most serious health history, including several bouts with cancer.

Here's what the Times article has to say about Sarah Palin. It's not much.

Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, 44, Mr. McCain’s running mate, has released no medical information.

and

Nothing is known publicly about Ms. Palin’s medical history, aside from the much-discussed circumstances surrounding the birth of her fifth child last April. Ms. Palin has said that her water broke while she was at a conference in Dallas and that she flew to Anchorage, where she gave birth to her son Trig hours after landing.

Last week Maria Comella, a spokeswoman for Ms. Palin, said the governor declined to be interviewed or provide any health records.

Sarah Palin is young, and clearly has taken very good care of her health via a vigorous lifestyle and exercise. She watches her weight. So why not release "any" health records?

There are criticisms - probably justified in every case - of the other candidates not releasing enough. But Palin has released NOTHING.

The only reason is that there's something in the records that she doesn't want people to see. Otherwise, why give people any ammunition?

And for those whiny Palin supporters who start saying, "Privacy. She should have her privacy," I say hogwash. Americans have the right to know before we elect.

Do I think that Sarah Palin is hiding any horrible health problems? No. But if there is no health "problem," then there must be another reason. And there's only one reason I can think of, and that is that it will be clear that everything she said about her fifth pregnancy last spring will mysteriously be no where to be found... the Down's diagnosis... the birth... everything.

Lactation Questions

This was posted as a comment on a post rather far down the list. I thought I'd give it a post of its own since I've had numerous questions in private email that are similar.

"I'd like to present Audrey with a question. As a lactation consultant, have you ever diagnosed Bristol's boobs from the the RNC? I've saved several photos of that event and I just can't believe that anyone's boobs would be that huge at 5-6 months along. Especially the ones of her sitting down with Levi. They are HUGE!!! Is this normal for a 5-6 month along pregnancy, or perhaps someone who is lactating? I hope you see this, Audrey... I'd like to hear your take. Thanks! ~Tina"

Tina, the truth is that I have been avoiding this question because I honestly don't know. Over a month ago, several people sent me this picture from the RNC. (You can see larger versions of all pictures by clicking on them.)

It's probably one of the ones that Tina is referring to. One woman referred to Bristol's bust line as "bolster-like." I have never come up with a better phrase. In my official lactation consultant parlance, I would term this bustline "gigantic." This young woman belongs on the prow of a ship.

It's been suggested to me repeatedly that the bustline looks stuffed, padded, and even lopsided. Here's another shot from the same night that I agree, there is a degree of "lopsided-ness."



OK, now take a look at this picture, taken approximately one week earlier at the Alaska State Fair. (I don't have an exact date since the fair ran from 8/21 to 9/2 but we know that Sarah was out of Alaska by 8/25.) Yes, I know Bristol is wearing a jacket and I know she is standing partially behind her mother (to her mother's right - first Palin from the left in picture), but still...



That bustline that we are seeing a week later at the RNC is not something that would be easy to hide. So where is it at the fair?

And here she is getting off the bus only a day or so before the RNC. Again, that massive bustline seems no where in evidence.



Is this just my imagination, people? I know she is a large-breasted young woman... we can see that in the photographs of her when she is not pregnant. But I agree, there's something wrong at the RNC.

It has been suggested to me that her breasts were bound at the RNC as part of a "forced weaning" and padded to ensure against any leakage. From this photographic evidence I can't say that that's an impossibility. However, I also believe she definitely looks pregnant here. And, having done it, I know how difficult it is to breastfeed and be pregnant at the same time.

So... frankly... I really don't know. Even given the fact that she's wearing a snug dress... and in the other pictures she's wearing a jacket or a sweatshirt, something seems "off" here.

Off Topic - But Don't Miss This.

This group so far has nothing to say about the topic of my website. But they've talked to numerous people in Wasilla and much of what they have to say is important to see.

The Wasilla Project

I also have some links to specific videos on my links page.

Bristol's birthday

Bristol has reappeared, in NYC. It is not clear whether she's been traveling with the campaign all along, or where she has been. As far as I know it's been over a month since anyone else has seen her or photographed her.

Here are three still shots captured from a video.







Here is the video.

Watch carefully, right at the :15 sec. point what appears to be a bodyguard (non secret service) moves Bristol into the hotel.

From these shots it's very difficult to tell if her stage of pregnancy has advanced in the six weeks since she was photographed at the RNC. You decide.

It All Comes Down to This

Forget Mr. Toad's Wild Jet Ride from Texas to Anchorage. Forget that rumors that Bristol Palin was pregnant can be dated to before March 2008. Forget that Sarah Palin was the skinniest 44 year old pregnant woman ever on the planet. Forget that she didn't tell her own mother she was pregnant until she was seven months. Forget that a woman with five high risk factors chose to give birth attended by a family practice physician at a rural hospital with no high-risk facilities. Forget that not one photograph of the "happy family" is available from the time of the birth. Ignore it all.

Assume only two things: rumors begin to fly on August 30, 2008 that Vice Presidential Candidate Sarah Palin was not Trig Palin's mother and that the McCain campaign decides that the rumors must be countered. (Both of these things are indisputably true.)

You have two choices:

1. Ask the physician whom you have stated publicly delivered Trig, Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, someone for whom you wrote recommendations on at least one occasion that helped her get a prestigious award, someone you appointed to a state medical advisory board, someone who had delivered one of your previous children - accompanied by perhaps Norman Stephens, the Mat-Su Regional Hospital CEO - to give a press conference. Ask her to make one statement: "On 6:30 a.m. on April 18th Sarah Palin gave birth to Trig Palin here at Mat-Su Regional Hospital. I was the physician in attendance. Sarah Palin is Trig Palin's biological mother. The rumors and allegations that Sarah Palin is not Trig Palin's biological mother are entirely false. Thank you."

OR

2. Announce to the world that your 17 year old daughter is five months pregnant (while providing no actual proof), making her the most notorious (and I don't use that word lightly) pregnant teen on the planet, opening not only your daughter to endless speculation and scrutiny but allowing a dialogue on your own parenting to begin, something that can in no way help your candidacy.

Hmmm. Tough call. Number one, number two. Number one, number two. Oh, hell. Let's go with number two.

It all comes down to that.

Help Me Locate...

A picture of Bristol Palin which was supposedly taken at the Governor's Picnic in July 2008. I have seen this more than once, but did not download it or save it. It apparently appeared initially on an Alaskan blog called "Progressive Alaska," but the picture now appears to have disappeared. Anyone have it?

A Comment about the National Enquirer

I have first hand knowledge of where the National Enquirer is on this issue because I am in communication with one of the reporters. They do pay their sources.

Here's the bottom line on this: I have stated elsewhere that I believe that one of the reasons this story has been so difficult to "crack" is that only a very few people actually know the truth, a small number of immediate family and a couple medical professionals and they ARE keeping their mouths shut. I believe that Bristol was kept almost completely sequestered during this period. I have no idea how.

Yes, it's true that the Enquirer has not been able to get anyone to stand up and state categorically that they saw Bristol Palin pregnant during the months of, say, Jan-April 2008. However, it's also true that they have not been able to get anyone to stand up and say that she was not pregnant. Not one person. Not one friend has been willing to go on record with the Enquirer and state: "I hung around with her all the time." "Here's a picture of us at Susie's birthday party which was in March." (Nowadays kids have MySpace pages and Facebook pages. They all have cell phones and digital cameras and are snapping pictures constantly.) From other reports, Bristol Palin was a popular girl (maybe too popular) with friends, and had an active social life. So where WAS she during the early months of 2008?

The Enquirer HAS tried. Don't lose sight of the fact that disproving this would be almost as valuable to them as proving it. They just want news, they don't care who Trig's mom is. Running an issue with a screaming headline, "Sarah is REALLY Trig's Mom" or something of the sort would sell a gazillion issues just as surely as "Bristol is Trig's Mom." A high school student who had a SINGLE datable picture from the period of 3-1-2008 to 4-17-2008 - datable because it's at a basketball game or birthday party - something that can be proved - in which Bristol Palin is NOT pregnant could make several thousand dollars or more from the Enquirer. The fact that they have not touched this issue is proof that they can't get a bead on it, either way.

And that says something.

Speculation About Willow

For the last few days, we've seen a fair number of comments which suggest that, given the evidence that Sarah may not be Trig's mother combined with Levi Johnston's statement that Bristol is due on December 18th (which would preclude HER giving birth to Trig), someone else must be the mother. The Palin's second daughter, Willow, has been mentioned.

What are the facts here? As I was trying to do a bit of research this morning, the first thing I tried to track down is just how old Willow Palin is, and surprisingly I had some trouble. Numerous places list her birthdate as: 1/21/94. This would make her currently 14 years old, turning fifteen in January. However, many other places, including Wikipedia, USAToday, and Zimbio claim that she was born in 1995. In addition, the official State of Alaska press release at the time of Trig's birth states that she was 13 at that time. If she'd really been born on 1/21/94 she would have been 14 already last April.

However, let's assume for the sake of this question that she was born on 1/21/94. She would have been 14 last April, and 13 at the time of any conception. Do 13 year old girls get pregnant? Certainly they do. But what evidence, other than speculation, do we have that this thirteen year old got pregnant in summer 2007 and gave birth in April 2008?

I can find none.

First, we KNOW that rumors existed that Bristol was pregnant.

Second, in Alaska, compulsory education laws require that young people attend school through age 17. Bristol turned 17 on 10/18/07, meaning that at any point after that date she could leave school, no questions asked. This is frankly one of the reasons I think we are having trouble tracking down info about Bristol - because she was not required to be in school. The same would not have applied to Willow. At 13, her parents could not have simply kept her out of school, even if her mother were the governor.

Third, we have Wasilla caterer Sue William's statements that it was Willow's eighth grade boyfriend that would not shut his mouth that Bristol was pregnant in April. As we've said earlier, Sue Williams, while having some pretty significant misgivings about Gov. Palin, initially stated in her posts that she believed that Sarah WAS the mother of Trig, and she was arguing that Bristol was pregnant last April already with her current pregnancy. That's not the issue of this post, but I mention it only to make the point that it rings true to me - that Willow's boyfriend really was saying these things. It is a very specific (and uncalled for) piece of info and would be an odd thing to fabricate. Remember, Sue Williams posted this BEFORE the McCain campaign announced that Bristol was pregnant. I can think of no reason for Sue Williams to make this up. Furthermore, she doesn't just say "boyfriend," she says "eighth grade boyfriend," indicated that Willow was in school. Willow's boyfriend is hardly going to be walking around Wasilla blabbing that Bristol is pregnant if it's really his little friend who is 6-7 months along.

Sixteen - seventeen year old girls get pregnant. It happens all the time, and most people are willing to simply accept it and move on with not much more than a shrug and a sigh. I wouldn't give a rat's rump if Bristol had had a baby last spring. The reason I have an issue with it is my perception that her mother may have lied about it and politicized it in numerous different ways. But in a small town, people are not going to accept a thirteen year old getting pregnant with the same level of tolerance. Since this is below the age of consent in Alaska (16) I doubt if even the governor could have totally circumvented some sort of legal intrusion.

So to summarize:

Willow would have been terribly young at the time of conception. While some information indicates she would have been 13, other data indicates she would have been 12.

No rumors exist anywhere that this was true. For a 16 year old young woman to get pregnant, most people shrug and say... these things happen. People are not going to be nearly so tolerant when the same thing happens to a 13 year old. They will talk.

Compulsory education laws would have made her disappearance from school far harder to manage.

We have one first hand, and I believe credible report, that a school "boyfriend" of Willow's was telling people that Bristol was pregnant during the exact time period we are interested in.

Age of consent laws in Alaska would have made legal scrutiny much more difficult to avoid.

I have tried very hard to allow posters pretty much free rein on this site, and I intend to continue to do so. But I also encourage everyone to remember that Willow, Piper and of course, Trig, are minor children who have not asked for any of this. (Bristol turns 18 in three days.) I have tried very hard to be sensitive to the children. I would ask that my readers do the same.

Update: Here is a video of Sarah Palin right after Todd won is first Iron Dog snowmobile (sorry, snow machine) race in 1995. She's holding a toddler who has to be a one year old Willow. This proves, I'd say, that the 1994 birth date is correct, and places that have Willow listed as being born in 1995 are incorrect.

I just want to find the truth...

In spite of some recent comments to the contrary, I am trying very hard to base the information on this site and blog on what has been widely published and available in the mainstream press. Our photographic evidence that Sarah Palin did not appear pregnant comes from extensive documentation, from places like Anchorage Daily News and the AP, as well as the official state of Alaska website, and many private individuals. Information on Sarah Palin's birth story comes from one place: Sarah Palin's own (at times conflicting) statements. Information that rumors that Bristol was pregnant predated Sarah Palin's pregnancy announcement came from Palin's own spokesperson. Information that Palin's doctor will not make a simple statement regarding the birth comes from the fact that she hasn't.

When something is based only on hearsay or gossip, I believe I have made it clear that this is the case. For example, I have said repeatedly that other than the one statement from the principal of Wasilla High School that Bristol Palin left "last fall," there is NOTHING that I can find anywhere that gives any sort of real information on where she was when. That she did or did not attend high school in Anchorage, that she did or did not live with her aunt... all of that is speculation. It's been widely published... but never confirmed and I have made that clear.

I have already given my real name and phone number to several correspondents and we have exchanged phone calls. I am willing to do that with anyone who seems credible in a few email exchanges. If a friend of Bristol Palin's from school wants to go on the record on the phone with me and state that she was with Bristol the day after Trig was born, believe me I will talk to that person and I will publish that information on the site and blog, fairly and accurately.

This site is not now and has never been about "smearing" Gov. Sarah Palin. I disagree sharply with many of her policies. However, I also disagree sharply with many of - for example - Mike Huckabee's policies. If McCain had picked him as a vice presidential running mate, it's highly unlikely I would be blogging about him.

I started this site and blog because Sarah Palin's birth story made utterly no sense to me as a medical professional. As I say on the front page of the site, I considered it "utterly absurd, an implausible series of ridiculous choices." I felt that even a chance that she had faked a pregnancy would show a lack of character so profound, I could not let it lie.

Since I have begun my research, Gov. Palin has been caught in several outright fabrications about the details of her pregnancy and birth - again, not based on gossip or rumors, but based on her own statements given to mainstream publications, for example her statement that Willow spotted Trig's Down's characteristics at birth but her own statement to the Anchorage Daily News three days after the birth was that the Down's was not yet noticeable. Of course, this only serves to make me more suspicious.

This website and blog is not based on gossip. It's based on circumstantial evidence gathered from sources as reputable as I can locate. And as a veteran prosecutor said to me in email several days ago, " I think you should also take it as a pretty good sign of seamlessness in the concrete evidence that, after 23 years in the business of analyzing holes in cases, I just don't see them here."

If anyone has evidence to the contrary, they need only contact me. I guarantee I will talk to you.

I Couldn't Resist

This just came in via email. I couldn't resist.

Request to "Anonymous"

I have allowed anonymous posting of comments on this blog. So far, I think it's working out well - we've had very few problems with spam, etc. However, one drawback of this is that it's very difficult for one commenter to respond to another commenter, since just about everyone is named "Anonymous."

I am asking all commenters, if you chose to use the "anonymous" option to post your comment, that you still create a signature for your comments and just put it in at the end. You can make up anything, "Susie J." "Fatboy" or whatever. This makes it much easier to have a dialogue within our comments section, and allows our regular readers to start identifying our different participants.

Thanks.

Scarier and Scarier

Although I've said in the past I am mostly steering away from posting on topics that have nothing to do with the central questions of this website, here was one I could not resist.

Currently, a biography called "Sarah: How a Hockey Mom Turned the Political Establishment Upside Down" by Kaylene Johnson is #5 on the paperback nonfiction bestseller list at the New York Times. Originally, another author, Amanda Coyne, had the contract to write the book. According to the "Alaska Ear," a column in the Anchorage Daily News, here's why she chose not to write the book.

"She hadn't traveled. She couldn't name her favorite book. She doesn't struggle with any kind of the big issues of the day. She has not experienced anything like adversity. It took her five colleges to get a journalism degree. Her mother didn't know who Sarah's idols were. She also didn't know how she became the kind of born-again Christian she says she is. She couldn't remember Sarah having interest in public policy, or in reformist movements, or in anything, much, except for sports. Both Sarah and her family are obsessed with Trooper Wooten."

I'll repeat something I said in a previous post: This is a woman that John McCain apparently believes, that should he die, would be qualified to take on Vladimir Putin, the former head of the KGB. Regardless of how one feels about Sarah Palin, this is the best reason I can think of not to vote for John McCain.

Update: Thanks to an alert reader, we now have the link to the full interview. Here it is. Please read this, there's more info here.

Help me Locate...

Yesterday, one of our regular readers - Micky-T - posted that he/she had seen Sarah Palin on stage at a campaign event. Willow and Piper were apparently on stage (or at least visible) and she introduced them. Then, said casually, "and Bristol is traveling with us too." (Or "here too" or something similar.) I have searched for this on youtube, etc, and cannot find it. Can anyone give a link to a video clip of this? This is the first MENTION of Bristol I can find in weeks and I would like to post it.

News Flash - Levi Johnston speaks

Levi Johnston gave what appeared to have been a surprise, off the cuff interview this morning in his driveway. Here's a link to the AP article.

For our purposes, obviously, the most critical piece of information is that Bristol is due on December 18th. This would place the date of conception of the child right around the first of April, well before Trig's birth, and would make her right now around 31 weeks pregnant.

Very interesting. I had assumed that if she were pregnant, what we would see was an induction of an "overdue" Bristol around the third week of January, the Palin family claiming that she was 43 weeks when she was really 37 weeks. Given that there is about a six week period during which delivery is considered normal (37-43 weeks) I felt that they could just barely make this work. (Though any doctor that would be a part of this should lose his/her license and go to jail.) But that had been my guess.

Now, all bets are off. The point, however, is that the election will be long over before anyone knows for sure.

Another interesting note: one commenter on an older thread stated that in a speech either yesterday or the day before, Gov. Palin introduced Piper and Willow who were on stage, and then stated that "Bristol is traveling with us too." Odd. Very very odd. If she's there, why not show her? (Can anyone provide a link to this, either on YouTube or elswhere?)

We're still playing Hide the Teenager.

A Bit of Info about Bristol

This question was posed in a comment on another post. Because this is a good article, and an interesting question, I thought I would answer it in its own post.

On another note, I found this puff piece article about Sarah Palin and her family in the February 2008 issue of Alaska Magazine.

It is unclear when the author interviewed Palin, but the author does mention seeing Bristol at the Palin home. It was the night of a gala ball that the Palin family, including Bristol, was attending. The article mentions that Vogue came to Alaska in December 2007 to photograph Palin, so the article must have been written sometime between the Vogue shoot and the article's February 2008 publication date.

The article mentions Bristol driving to Anchorage from Wasilla to buy a special dress for the ball and spending her gas money in Anchorage to get her legs waxed, to the chagrin of her parents who thought leg waxing was a waste of money. This doesn't jibe with Bristol being pregnant in December or January (when I assume the author visited with the Palins), but it also doesn't jibe with Bristol being home sick with mono.

I've done a bit of research on this, though have not talked directly to the magazine. However, another blogger, who has had a blog promoting the idea of Sarah Palin for V.P for months, mentions the article, encouraging his readers to buy the issue, on January 22nd. So we know that the magazine was out, and available by 1/22/08 at the very latest.

This is a full color, full production glossy magazine. Knowing that printing and distribution schedules on publications like that usually run a month or more, I can see no way that this article was written in January. I am assuming it was written sometime in December, after the Vogue shoot, which was December 8th. This would mean that whether Bristol or Sarah was pregnant, the pregnancy would only have been around 18-20 weeks.

While it's clear the reporter noticed nothing amiss with Bristol, it's also interesting that she describes Sarah as dressed in a "black skirt and silver-sequined sweater," so no sign of pregnancy there either. One of them had to be pregnant.

Yes, it would be nice to figure out what event this was, since we can find absolutely no photograph of Bristol with her family after later summer 2007.

Tight Abs?

Sarah Palin, in her interview with filmmaker Frank Elan, states, "My abs were tight and I could hide it." She is referring specifically to why no one noticed she was pregnant prior to her announcement on March 6th, 2008 - approximately five weeks before the video was shot.

A physician sent the following in via email:

As a physician, who also happens to be an engineer, I am once again struck by how utterly uneducated this erstwhile cheerleader is - to the point that she can't even conjure up an convincing lie.

Two of the fundamental principles of physics are called, "impenetrability of matter," which, simply put, means that two objects may not occupy the same place at the same time, and "incompressibility of liquids and solids," which means neither can be squeezed into a smaller volume - unlike a gas. They take up the space they take up, and there is no way to squeeze them into a smaller volume, tight abs or not.

It is precisely the skinny women who cannot disguise their pregnancies, because the expanding uterus, containing solids and liquids, occupies a certain volume, and all surrounding tissues must move out of the way to make room, and it always gives a characteristic appearance - the so-called "baby bump." There are no exceptions to this rule. Obese women can, for a time, hide their pregnancies because, well, an extra twenty pounds looks like the last twenty pounds, but a woman with "tight abs" is the very woman who shows her pregnancy first.

Looks like Gov. Palin missed physics at those five colleges she attended.

A New Graphic to Share

Click to see the larger version.



The photo on the left is from the opening of the 2008 Iditarod, March 1, 2008. The photo on the left is from the awards ceremony of Alaska's World Ice Carving Championships in March 2007.

Travel Observations

I have been traveling for nearly a week now, and as I flew home today two things occurred that I would like to share.

The first happened as I was going through security. I fly a lot and know that occasionally everyone gets pulled out for special screening. But it's been my observation that – at least in my case – this happens based on some random (translate: unlucky) code written on your boarding pass, and I knew that had not happened today. So I was pretty surprised when I got pulled out of line – after already going through the initial metal detector - by a guy wearing a headset. "Ma'am," he said. "You need to step aside for a moment." Good grief, I was thinking. What now? Did I forget a tweezers or something equally dangerous in my luggage? He called on his head set for a female screener to do a pat down.

I was wearing a sweatshirt like top which has a front pouch pocket. I like this for flying since I can stick my boarding pass, cell phone, etc, right there and have them very handy. The female screener arrived and immediately patted down my front midsection – and discovers my… (drum roll) reading glasses. She showed them to the man who had pulled me out of line, who still did not release me until he reported over his headset that "the midsection screen was clear." I don't know whom he was talking to or where I was being watched from, but just the small odd bulge caused by my READING GLASSES was noticed.

Based on this, I am much more inclined to think that the idea that Gov. Palin was too frightened to wear any sort of prosthetic pregnancy through airport security is likely, explaining why no one really noticed she was pregnant on April 17th as she flew from Dallas to Anchorage. (Or why she was NEVER challenged on the ten previous flights she took from Febraury 23rd on...and not all of these were on Alaska Air.) The chances of it being detected I now think were probably greater than I had previously assumed. If they had patted her down for any reason – and it just happened to me, just about the most innocuous flier imaginable – and found it, there might have been real repercussions. It was a risk she could not take.

The second happened as I was checking email, waiting for my flight. Sitting next to me in the boarding area were an elderly Jewish couple from Fort Lauderdale. I'd say they were both close to eighty. Her name was Zellie, his was Howie. They have twelve grandchildren, three great-grandchildren, and have visited Israel nine times. They used to live in New Jersey. I learned all of this (and a lot more) in about ten minutes. I chatted with Zellie for a while then, when she picked a new victim (a woman sitting across from her) I got out my laptop to check email. In my in-box was an email with an attachment sent in by someone who has been corresponding with me since the beginning of my efforts. The attachment was a spoof wanted poster, like you'd see on the side of a milk carton, entitled "Where's Bristol?"



I opened the graphic and was staring at it, when Zellie piped up next to me. "I'm so glad," she said, "that someone is doing something."

I glanced over at her, and realized she was looking at my computer screen. My first thought was regret over not having one of those privacy filters that I've seen advertised, and for a moment I missed the sense of what she was saying. "What?"

She pointed to the poster. "I'm glad someone is doing something," she repeated, "about that Bristol Palin thing." I realized then that she did not understand that the poster was a joke.

"Really? Why is that?"

She looked at me, her eyes implying that I was not the sharpest knife in the drawer. "Well, you don't really think that poor little girl is pregnant, do you?"

I wanted to see where this was going. "I don't know what to think," I said, noncommittally.

"Well, she's not," Zellie asserted. "And I'm glad someone is doing something. Because those people have something terrible planned for her, just you wait and see."

So here's my open message to "those people:" Zellie is a bubbe from Fort Lauderdale, who probably does not even own a computer. She's almost certainly never surfed "left wing" websites or read a "radical blog." (Like this one, I guess.) Based on her demographic, it's a good bet she may have voted Republican in the past. And she knows that the whole Bristol story stinks, to the point that she's sitting in an airport, telling a random total stranger, that "something terrible" is planned for "that poor little girl."

You guys got more of a problem than you think.

Answering some Questions

An email came in this morning which asked several questions that have been coming up frequently in my mail, so I thought I'd just use it here, and answer as best I can.

As a 46 year old mother of three kids ages 6 1/2 and younger, I've known from the moment Palin burst into my consciousness that something is just not right with her fifth baby story. My husband thinks I am crazy and that there is no way this sort of complex deception could be maintained for so long, particularly in light of the increased scrutiny since the VP selection. But I know there is something so not right going on here and it needs to come out before Election Day. Please keep doing what you are doing, presenting a rational, intelligent and even cautious examination of the facts surrounding this bizarre situation.
Some questions I have that I'd like to see addressed at your website:
-- where is Bristol Palin and why have there been no (or few) photos of her since the convention in Saint Paul? Has the McCain campaign given any explanation?
-- where is baby Trig while his "mother" is out giving race-baiting speeches all over the country and watching the second Presidential debate at a party at a bar in North Carolina? Is he getting the care and attention appropriate for a special needs six month old?
-- is there anything in the "Troopergate" findings that could shed light on the baby Trig questions?

The first comment I'd like to make regards her husband's comment that he thinks she is "crazy" because nothing this complicated could be maintained this long. I believe that one of the issues with the birth is that it really was not that complex. It's important to remember that at the time all of this was going on she was the longest of shots for the V.P slot. No one could have guessed the kind of scrutiny that her choices last April would be subjected to now. I speculate that the plan was actually quite simple, and very few people knew for sure. (It may have even involved a private home birth, something that only fell through when labor began 4-5 weeks early. This would also explain why the use of Mat-Su feels so clumsy... because it was a last minute choice selected for privacy purposes.)

We know that rumors existed before the birth - before Palin even announced her pregnancy - that Bristol was pregnant. We know that there was disbelief in certain circles - especially among young people who had known Bristol - and there was gossip before the birth - and after - that as soon as Sarah announced her pregnancy, that she was covering for Bristol. But very few people were close enough to Gov. Palin and her family really to KNOW for sure what is going on, and since the "circle of trust" was very small, no one was talking. Two, three, four, five people really can keep a secret if they want to. Realistically, if one had a sympathetic birth attendant who was willing to falsify a birth certificate, you'd only need one or two people outside immediate family to be in on it.

Would some state staff members suspect? They would have to. Many of them would have been women who had had children themselves, and women who are 7 1/2 to 8 months pregnant move in a certain way, they hold their backs in a certain way, they go to the bathroom a lot. Your breasts hurt. Your baby's head is sitting right on your cervix, and if he moves in a certain way you can get very sharp pains. By the time I was seven months with my fourth pregnancy I was having Braxton Hicks contractions strong enough that I had to stop what I was doing and take a breath. Was Sarah Palin doing any of this? Doesn't really sound like it. But yet no one was in a position to look her in the eye and say, "I don't think you're really pregnant." I mean, how do you say that to the Governor? And some, who were undoubtedly loyal, could have understood what was happening but were willing to go along with it.

And then the baby was born, and anyone who suspected still did not have enough proof to "out" the story. Because, again, the number of people who knew for sure was very small.

As to your specific questions, first, where is Bristol? (Who according to the McCain campaign should now be nearly 6 1/2 months - i.e, VISIBLY - pregnant. Unless she takes after her mother of course. If so, then she'll have another two to three weeks of not looking pregnant at all!) Bristol did appear to travel with the family for the first week or so of the campaign, between the RNC and when Sarah Palin came back to Alaska to see her son off. The last official press siting of her is on September 13th at her mother's rally in Anchorage. Here's a (rather sad) description written by someone who observed Bristol carefully on that day.

...sitting three-quarters of the way up the bleacher was Bristol Palin and her eighteen-year-old impregnator, Levi Johnston. Once I noticed them, I kept my eye on Bristol and Levi. What I learned provoked an odd empathy for the awful pickle Wasilla High School's hockey stick wielding homeboy now finds himself in.

Bristol and Levi sat shoulder-to-shoulder. But not once did they look at each other, speak to each other, or in any way acknowledge each other's physical presence. Not once. For an entire hour. Instead, Bristol stared straight ahead and Levi had the glazed look of a trapped feral animal.

Then when Sarah wound up her autograph signing and the people sitting in front of him on the bleacher began climbing down, Levi stood up and, without looking at or speaking to his betrothed, turned in the opposite direction and walked away.

As far as I can determine this is the last time Bristol has been seen in public, now almost one month ago. She was NOT at the VP debate, or at least not on stage with the rest of the family. Frankly, I don't know where this poor child is, and I personally resent Palin dragging the rest of her kids around like accessories (glasses, check, purse, check, Trig, check) when it would be "off limits" to ask anything about Bristol.

Second, regarding your question about Trig. It appears as if Trig, Piper, and Willow are all traveling with the campaign. If you really watch the news sites, you'll see shots of them virtually every day. Down's babies do need therapy in the first year of their lives to help them meet developmental milestones. Is he getting it? My guess would be probably. The campaign is certainly well-funded enough for them to arrange to have a full time medical professional knowledgeable about Down's infants to travel with them, and this is also something that would look really bad it if would come out that it was not happening. So my guess is that hopefully yes, this child is getting the therapy he needs. Of course this doesn't address the overall issue of using your kids as campaign props to begin with... when's the last time you saw the Obama children? (You haven't because they are in school in Chicago.)

Third, regarding your question about Troopergate. I don't know that much about it... Mudflats blog and website are the source for anything you EVER would want to know about that. However, Troopergate is not really that current in many ways. The initial incidents - the custody battle and conflicts with Trooper Wooten - happened many years ago, long before Sarah Palin became governor. The core of Troopergate as I understand it is that once Sarah Palin became governor, she is alleged to have pressured the "powers that be" to have him fired. So I don't really see any connection to a baby born last spring. However, just as an aside, there were allegations and complaints made that Sarah was not putting Trig in an "approved car seat."

This has come out recently as part of Todd Palin's sworn deposition. Here's the quote from the Anchorage Daily News.

On the car seat, Monegan sent an e-mail to the governor on June 30, 12 days before he lost his job, that said: "Via a soon-to-be-retiring legislator, we received a complaint that had you driving with Trig not in an approved car seat; if this is so that would be awkward in many ways."

The governor fired back from her private e-mail account: "I've never driven Trig anywhere without a new, approved car seat. I want to know who said otherwise -- pls provide me that info now."

Todd Palin, in his sworn statement, said this was a "false rumor," and that the governor was a passenger in a truck, "on a private farm road without traffic at low speed."

Now, I for one don't believe Sarah or any mother or grandmother would drive around with a three month old infant NOT in a car seat. Sarah Palin is very concerned about her image. This is one of the reasons I have never believed her birth story... can you imagine the headlines if she had given birth on an airplane? I never for one second believed that she would have risked that kind of awful humiliation even if she'd known for a fact that her chances of delivering were only 1%. Well, the same applies here. Even if she would not care for the child at all (and I don't believe that) the headlines and negative publicity should the governor's child be seriously hurt in a car accident and be found to not have been in a car seat would be horrific. So for that simple reason alone, I doubt it.

However, I do find it curious that Sarah needed to ask "who said otherwise" when Todd seemed to know a whole lot about the incident - a private road in a truck - etc. That would imply some closed event with friends. Well, then who would have reported it?