Monday, October 20, 2008

Bristol's pregnancy rumors revisited

There are several posts recently which have asked for a review of the "Bristol is pregnant" rumors. I think it's probably a good idea to summarize everything in one place.

Here is what we know definitively.

1. According to Palin's own spokesperson, Bill McAllister, Sarah Palin approached him - before Sarah's pregnancy was announced - to (and I am paraphrasing here) reassure him that rumors that existed that Bristol was pregnant were not true. This would have to have been BEFORE March 6, 2008.

2. A post was placed on a gossip board (reddit.com) on April 8 2008 stating specifically that rumors were widespread that the Sarah Palin pregnancy announcement was a cover-up for Bristol's being pregnant. The post received very few responses, but one person claiming to be from Palmer (right next to Wasilla) stated that he/she had heard the same thing.

These two items prove unequivocally that rumors did exist in Alaska before Trig's birth that Bristol, not Sarah, was pregnant, that Sarah was aware of them, and that she made at least some attempt to rebut them.

3. Wasilla caterer Sue Williams said on August 29th that Willow's boyfriend had been telling people in April before Trig was born that Bristol was pregnant. Sue Williams, however, is claiming that the pregnancy that was discussed then was still ongoing, the same pregnancy that the McCain campaign announced the next day. Williams states that Bristol was (as of 8/29) well into her third trimester (so seven to eight months at least).

4. We have the McCain campaign stating that Bristol was "around five months" as of 9/1.

5. We have Levi Johnston who has been identified as Bristol child's father who has stated that the child is due 12/18/08.

6. The National Enquirer has stated, without providing any date reference, that Bristol was kicked out of the house by Sarah when she found out she was pregnant and sent to live with her aunt and (according to the Anchorage Daily News) was to attend West High School in Anchorage. On September 1, 2008, the aunt Heather Bruce seems to have confirmed that this did occur and it was "in the spring" that Bristol lived (or was supposed to live) with her. The assistant principal at Wasilla High School has stated that Bristol was removed from that high school "last fall." (i.e, the fall of 2007)

We also have unconfirmed gossip from a variety of sources that the pregnancy was common knowledge at Anchorage West High School, the school that Bristol was to have attended after leaving Wasilla High School in the fall of 2007. I also have received info from another reporter who has spoken to an Alaskan government official who has stated that according to this man's daughter, who attends West High School, Bristol attended there briefly "before Christmas" and did not return after the holidays.

Misty on our board has stated that she is from the Palmer/Wasilla area of Alaska and is claiming first hand knowledge that people saw Bristol pregnant this summer and that Levi was saying in early May that he was going to be a daddy... even providing us an interesting detail of "baby crocs hanging from the rear view mirror."

The problem is at this point it's impossible to find an explanation that fits all of the statements. She could not have been pregnant last fall and taken out of Wasilla High School and still pregnant now. She had to have given birth at some point. (Of course, there are alternate explanations such as a miscarriage, but with no proof, it's really a waste of time to start going down these splinter paths.)

Although it has been widely stated that the story that was put out (at some point) to explain Bristol's absence from school was that she had "mono," I can't find any concrete source for that. This was stated by the Daily Kos writer and others from the beginning of this controversy in late August, and has been repeated endlessly, but where that statement came from initially I don't know.

First, it's pretty clear that Sue Williams' statement - that Bristol's current pregnancy was already advanced enough in early April for middle schoolers to be talking about it - is wrong. She would have had to become pregnant in February at the latest.. which would make her due now. That seems very unlikely based on photographic evidence from July (she doesn't look pregnant at all), early September (she looks a bit pregnant) and last week (hard to tell, but little if any change from September.)

Second, it's very difficult to reconcile the National Enquirer/Heather Bruce/assistant principal at Wasilla High information with a pregnancy that did not commence until April. If Bristol is due 12/18 this gives a date of conception right around 4/1. She herself would not have known until mid April and could easily have hidden it from family for a month or more, which takes us well into May.

So that leaves:

1. Bristol was pregnant with Trig last winter. The gossip Sue Williams reports refers to that pregnancy. Speculation: The family had mostly managed to conceal the pregnancy, so what was assumed to be a fairly "early" pregnancy in April was already well advanced. Bristol was due May 15th but gave birth a month early.
1a. Bristol is currently pregnant again, but not as far along as the McCain campaign has stated. She would likely be somewhere around 4 to 4 1/2 months as of 10/20, with a due date of mid February.
1b. Bristol is not currently pregnant. It is a fabrication of the McCain campaign designed to rebut the rumors that Sarah Palin is not Trig's mother.

2. Bristol was NOT pregnant with Trig last winter, and the time line which has been presented by the McCain campaign and Levi Johnston, giving her due date in mid December, is true, or nearly so.

Was Bristol visibly pregnant this summer? We have two photos both from the same week in July, and she does not look at all pregnant in either.

However, according to the "due in December" time line, she would have only been 17-18 weeks here, so probably not showing much if this is a first pregnancy. And "summer" is a long time. Summer could be the last week in August.

Here's the bottom line.

I am suspicious for a variety of reasons. I don't think it's necessary to rehash what has been said about Bristol's whereabouts last winter/spring. However, I can think of no plausible reason for the campaign to continue to hide her at this point unless... they have something to hide. It reminds me of the line from Juno: "I'm already pregnant... what other shenanigans can I get into?" We've been told she's pregnant and from comments (and one random sighting) she appears to be with the campaign. Again yesterday (10/20) and today (10/21), Willow and Piper were on stage with their mother... no Bristol. This is not Victorian times where the sight of a gravid belly is going to set us all to swooning. God knows, her own mother made it clear what she thinks of "Neanderthals" who think that women can't work, be pregnant, and care for children simultaneously. So why hide her away?

And again ... I'm stuck with the same conclusion I've been coming to since early September... because she's not nearly as pregnant as she is supposed to be... baby crocs notwithstanding.

29 comments:

PalinBaby Question said...

Thank you for this concise thoughtful summary - very well put. One small request ... would it be possible to include the website addresses for the ADN pages and other websites you refer to? It would be very handy to be able to copy and paste a link to see the website that you are referring to! Thank you again!

Tina in CA said...

Sarah looks rather large in the photo at the zoo (especially compared to now...she's so thin currently)

I'm as much as a conspiracy theorist as anyone, but I can look at that photo and think Sarah might have been large from having given birth 2 months earlier.

I want Bristol to be the mom of Trig just to bust Sarah, but now I'm not so sure.

Anonymous said...

Audrey,

Another good post. I recall reading contemporaneous posts on an ADN site (?) of someone in Alaska scoffing at the 'mono' excuse for Bristol being out of school. This was the Friday evening of the announcement before it hit the fan. After that, I couldn't find it as it got buried in higher google references. But I think that's where the initial story came from.

This is all third-hand, of course, but I remember it distinctly because it was the final piece of the puzzle that convinced me that Sarah Palin had faked the pregnancy. It was around this time that lots of people, including me, reached the same conclusion since we had a plausible explanation for Trig's mother besides Sarah.

As to the larger questions you pose on the Bristol pregnancy timeline, we are either missing some information on the timing of various "rumors", or we are missing a piece of the puzzle, or both. I've express my feelings on this already so I won't belabor it. (No pun intended.)

But do consider this: Assume that the existence of 07-08 Bristol pregnancy rumors and out-of-school evidence to be true. (Not the rumors themselves being true but the existence of the rumors). Add to that a future birthday of her new baby that would preclude her from being Trig's mother. How do you explain the school absence and pregnancy rumors?

It would either have to be the official Palin story or something else. We all think it is something else, but what?

One other point for investigation: What do the Palin daughters' travel reimbursement records haev to say about their activities during that time. There must be public records on that since it is in the news today. Where can you get these records?

Dangerous

Anonymous said...

Just a note on mono; my teenage daughter was just diagnosed with it a couple of weeks ago. The course of treatment was really no big deal: three days of steroids to treat the swelling in her throat. Told to curb the physical activities, like sports, to protect her spleen, and take it easy. Not out of school for months. Not even weeks. Not a big deal, and she's much better now. She could have had a mild case, and Bristol a more serious one, but still, according to the doctor, the standards of treatment are very different than they used to be. Just sayin'.

amy said...

I too want to believe that Bristol is the mother of Trig but there is always one piece of evidence that I can't wrap my head around:

In Mercede's MySpace pics, there is a photo of Bristol leaning over Mercede, and she does not look postpartum at all. She is thin and wearing jeans. It has been said that that is Willow leaning over Mercede but I don't think so, I'm good with faces and I'm pretty darn sure it's Bristol.

Second from top left -- I know there is a higher res version of this pic some where out there: http://docs.google.com/View?docid=ddxfxrr8_7fxfr6tfj

Thoughts?

Anonymous said...

Thank you so much for this site. I just came across it and am glad to see a composite that includes all my concerns and questions. This is all very suspicious. Somethign isn't right and I'm relieved to see I'm not the only one that sees this. I'm checking here daily now. Thanks again!

Anonymous said...

Re the comment suggesting that Bristol looks too thin in Levi's sister's myspace pix to have recently given birth:

I gave birth to my first child at 26, much older than Bristol, and my face postpartum was also still very thin.

I think she is glowing with happiness, and looks very much like a new mother a day or so after giving birth.

She certainly looks more like one than SP does in those pix.

Anonymous said...

Bristol Palin was playing basketball for the Juneau-Douglas Crimson Bears in 2007. She is also listed in the paper on the honor roll in Juneau. These references are available by searching archives at juneauempire.com. I saw a picture of her at one point in her JDHS basketball uniform but I don't know where I saw it.

I heard from the mother of a Juneau high school student that the reason she was pulled out of Juneau Douglas High School was mono. And that no one believed it. There were rumors that she was pregnant.

So when did she turn up in high school in either Anchorage or Wasilla?

Anonymous said...

Any reasons why all three girls aren't attending any school this fall? Maybe it's just me, but it doesn't seem like it's necessary to have the whole family on the campaign trail, at this point.

Anonymous said...

Taking the three girls and baby Trig on the campaign trail allows them to live off the McCain campaign dole. All their expenses are being paid.

Sarah's used to living off the public dole and having the Alaska taxpayers pay for personal family expenses.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jwb6ekOiK0T9yFvw_WURcrdPI65QD93V69Q00

The McCain campaign has now taken over that role. In less than two months, the campaign has spent over $150,000 on clothes for Sarah, Todd and the kids.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14805.html

Nice work if you can get it. No Walmart for this hockey mom family. They're shopping at Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus ($75,062.63 to Neiman's alone).

Anonymous said...

Check out the picture of Piper on the Huffington Post carrying a Louis Vuitton bag

http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gadgets/slideshows/460/slide_460_11037_large.jpg

Priceless. I've had enough of this whole family.

Mary g said...

To anonymous who wonders about the Mercedes/sadie my space pix, and thinking that Bristol is leaning over Mercedes: that may be Willow--they look a lot a like. so check again. also the furniture to Willow/bristol's right is different from that at Sarah's right in the sepia-toned photo of a similar pose.....Mary

amy said...

mary - the furniture is exactly alike - you can tell my the piece of paper on the cabinet in the background. the is hard to tell on the google doc but on larger pics it's evident. and i want to think it's willow, but i've been looking at it a long time and i'm positive it's bristol.

Sunshine1970 said...

RE kids not in school. I'd assume, just like child actors, all the kids have a tutor along with them and have set hours during each day they have to have schoolwork done. I thought there was a law kids had to have some sort of schooling no matter what.

I heard the clothing reports this morning on Morning Joe. Right away I had the song "Rainbow High" from Evita running through my head. Rainbow High Lyrics

Anonymous said...

My son was buddies with Bristol while she went to school in Anchorage. When I asked him why she was at West High he said she had moved in with her aunt because she did not want to go back to school in Juneau. The Legislature convenes in January and, apparently, the entire Palin family would basically move to Juneau during the 120 day session.

I saw Bristol on 1/17/08 at a West v East Hockey Game in Anchorage. I saw her again later that month or early in February when the herd came over to our house for lunch break. She did not appear to be pregnant.

When I asked my son why Bristol left school, he said she had taken a lot of distance learning classes and finished early. He never heard anything about mono. My son does not remember exactly when Bristol left school, but thinks it was right around Spring Break which was in early March. That would coincide with the end of a school quarter. He did say she and Levi had broken up for awhile but had gotten back together.

In early May (it might've been late April - my memory is fuzzy on this), my son told me: "Bristol IS pregnant."

The Alaska media was aware of the Bristol Pregnancy Rumors in the spring. I use to be a working member of the press here and still have a lot of friends in newsrooms. This was not considered newsworthy and no one followed up on it.

After TRIG was born, the rumor started floating that he was Bristol's baby. This was considered newsworthy because, if true, it would have meant the Governor had lied. The source of the rumor was traced it back to a woman in Wasilla who was an outspoken critic of Sarah Palin.

A good journalist always asks "WHY?" about a source's motives, especially when that source hands over explosive information:

Does the source have an axe to grind or an agenda to advance?

Even though the source was obviously antagonistic, her claims were not rejected outright. However, no further evidence could be found to confirm this rumor at the time. And, in July, once Bristol was seen with what appeared to be a definite baby bulge, the matter was no longer pursued.

UNTIL....

Sarah Palin was chosen as McCain's running mate.

While the parentage rumor runs rampant in a handful of blogs, the issue that has Alaskans really riled up is Troopergate. The McCain operatives here have practiced a particularly despicable form of scorched-earth politics and have wrongly smeared many good people.

It is far from over.

Unfortunately, Alaskans will live with the aftermath of this election for a long time. And, on a personal level, I feel very sorry for Sarah's kids. They, too, will be dealing with the aftermath of being scorched by the glare for a very long time to come.

Anonymous said...

That last post was from me:

Misty in Anchorage

Anonymous said...

OK Misty,

Your narrative, while technically third-hand hearsay, has enough detail to be relatively convincing. If we take what you are relaying as true, Bristol could not be the mother of Trig, right?

Are you then implying that Sarah must be Trig's mother then, despite the evidence to the contrary?

Do you have any direct evidence of Sarah Palin's pre-natal care and delivery of Trig? There certainly isn't anything on the record except the Palin family (and Sarah Palin's) statements, and they don't add up.

If you've followed this blog, you know that I've proposed that Willow could be Trig's mother and that conclusion fits the facts. Do you have any direct evidence of Willow's whereabouts in early 2008? From what you've relayed the Palin daughters were beebobbing and scatting vis-a-vis school for the entire 2007-2008 school year.

Also, how reliable a source is Sarah Palin (or anyone in the Palin family and close friends circle) given their various motives from March 6, 2008 to the present?

Dangerous

Anonymous said...

Dangerous,

I imply nothing and do not purport to be an apologist for Sarah Palin. I simply have stated what I know.

I'm not sure what is third-hand about seeing Bristol in February with my own eyes.

Misty

Mary G. said...

"Misty" provides some interesting details of seeing Bristol, or of her son seeing Bristol. The problem is that, as Audrey has pointed out, not all the scenarios work--for example: why would Palin surprise everyone with a last minute announcement, then not provide a single shred of evidence, such as a family photo in the hospital (not to mention a birth announcement--I mean, this is NOT a private person, and neither are her children). But there is nothing--not to mention a doctor who is MIA. Also, no one has ANY cell phone picture of Bristol at these events??? Trig was a pretty small baby, although not if he was a month early--6lbs 2oz sounds pretty big for preterm. First-time (rather than fifth-time) mothers often don't show much, either. And note how Sarah keeps saying Trig was a "gift" from God--an incredibly hubristic, not to mention bizarre, way to put it.... Mary G.

Anonymous said...

Misty,

Your direct observations of Bristol are first-hand. I was referring to what you wrote about what your son told you that he had heard about Bristol. That's third-hand hearsay, but it doesn't necessarily make it untrue. I do appreciate your sharing the information, however.

I'm not attacking nor implying anything about your comments. On the contrary; if anything, I think they support my assertion that Bristol was not pregnant in early 2008 and is not Trig's mother. But what about Willow? Do you have any direct evidence about her?

It is a much higher ick-factor to speculate in her direction, but it is also a strong motivation for Sarah Palin to claim the child as her own, don't you agree? If so, then her actions would be somewhat noble, although I'm not sure her motives would be entirely selfless.

If you have some information, please respond on this thread.

Dangerous

Anonymous said...

Dangerous,

I do not have any information about Willow.

I am checking with a friend of mine who may have some video of Bristol at one of the HS hockey games in Feb. She remembers taping the crowd. If she has anything, we can post on youtube.

Misty

mc said...

Hi Misty--I have a couple of questions for you. Based on stuff I've read on the Internet, I think I might know who the outspoken critic of SP was. Is it someone that has a blog re: SP? I ask because I had read some comments on an ADN website story that was dated in February of 2008, and it was extremely clear that this person had (or, alternatively, wanted people to think she had) some knowledge of something big up with SP's family. At least, that's how I read it, even when I was trying to imagine reading it before any of this came out.

So, if that is the person you mean, how was it determined that she was the start of the rumors? And do you know why she would have an axe to grind?

Also--I was under the impression that BP transferred from Wasilla to Anchorage, rather than from Juneau (based on news story report). I thought the pic of her in Juneau bball was determined to have been from winter of 2007-when SP was in Juneau. Then for some reason, she must have started up at Wasilla in fall of 2007 (?). If she was indeed the pg one and due in May, then seeing her in winter in January/early Feb may not be completely conclusive.

MC

Anonymous said...

Hi MC,

I don't know if Bristol transferred that particular quarter to Anchorage from Juneau. I just know that my son told me that she did not want to go to school down there and she ended up here for a month or so.

As for the source of the Trig is Bristol's Baby rumors, MY source told me it was an elected official who made an'off-the-record' aside claiming to have heard the 'rumor' from a constituent whose name was not revealed. This official was definitely not a fan of the Governor's. From what I understand, some reporters did do some followup but ran into dead ends.

At this point, I've shared just about every insight I might have into this. I only know what I know and this is about it. But, if you have any more questions about what I've already posted, Id be happy to elaborate.

Misty

Anonymous said...

Thank you Misty.

Do you know of any concrete information that would conclude that Willow is not Trig's mother (other than the ick-factor)?

For example, does anyone you know have direct knowledge of where either of the younger Palin girls went to school in 07-8?

Dangerous

Anonymous said...

I can't belive you spend your time on a blog to discredit whether or not SP had a baby or who's baby Trig is, etc....why not spend your time blogging on the issues? Or blogging on all the 'double talk' on obama/biden side?...and why would she fake her pregancy in 2007 when she was no where in the nations spotlight, and then have her daughter be pregnant again? wouldn't it be easier to 'lie' about having a baby in 07-08 to cover up for the daughter, but why have the daughter be pregnant again? I dont' get it....Spend your time blogging on the real issues....whey shoud we vote Obama in 2008? what will he do for us ?

Jen said...

It's Dec 26 and no word of a baby yet? Hmmm...

Betsy said...

I found this site while searching for news about the birth of Bristol's baby. Most posts are hearsay at best, but I find it all relevant today as it is almost two weeks past her "alleged" due date.

Anonymous said...

What Betsy said . . .

Anonymous said...

I've been waiting to hear about Bristols new arrival. I always thought that if she is pregnant then she is not as far along as they are saying. I believe she may have her baby in Late January or early February 2009.

I saw pictures of Palin when she was pregnant at 7 or 8 months and you could tell she was very pregnant.

Willow never crossed my mind, mmm, worth looking into. Good reason for mother to hide her pregnancy.