Bristol's pregnancy rumors revisited

There are several posts recently which have asked for a review of the "Bristol is pregnant" rumors. I think it's probably a good idea to summarize everything in one place.

Here is what we know definitively.

1. According to Palin's own spokesperson, Bill McAllister, Sarah Palin approached him - before Sarah's pregnancy was announced - to (and I am paraphrasing here) reassure him that rumors that existed that Bristol was pregnant were not true. This would have to have been BEFORE March 6, 2008.

2. A post was placed on a gossip board (reddit.com) on April 8 2008 stating specifically that rumors were widespread that the Sarah Palin pregnancy announcement was a cover-up for Bristol's being pregnant. The post received very few responses, but one person claiming to be from Palmer (right next to Wasilla) stated that he/she had heard the same thing.

These two items prove unequivocally that rumors did exist in Alaska before Trig's birth that Bristol, not Sarah, was pregnant, that Sarah was aware of them, and that she made at least some attempt to rebut them.

3. Wasilla caterer Sue Williams said on August 29th that Willow's boyfriend had been telling people in April before Trig was born that Bristol was pregnant. Sue Williams, however, is claiming that the pregnancy that was discussed then was still ongoing, the same pregnancy that the McCain campaign announced the next day. Williams states that Bristol was (as of 8/29) well into her third trimester (so seven to eight months at least).

4. We have the McCain campaign stating that Bristol was "around five months" as of 9/1.

5. We have Levi Johnston who has been identified as Bristol child's father who has stated that the child is due 12/18/08.

6. The National Enquirer has stated, without providing any date reference, that Bristol was kicked out of the house by Sarah when she found out she was pregnant and sent to live with her aunt and (according to the Anchorage Daily News) was to attend West High School in Anchorage. On September 1, 2008, the aunt Heather Bruce seems to have confirmed that this did occur and it was "in the spring" that Bristol lived (or was supposed to live) with her. The assistant principal at Wasilla High School has stated that Bristol was removed from that high school "last fall." (i.e, the fall of 2007)

We also have unconfirmed gossip from a variety of sources that the pregnancy was common knowledge at Anchorage West High School, the school that Bristol was to have attended after leaving Wasilla High School in the fall of 2007. I also have received info from another reporter who has spoken to an Alaskan government official who has stated that according to this man's daughter, who attends West High School, Bristol attended there briefly "before Christmas" and did not return after the holidays.

Misty on our board has stated that she is from the Palmer/Wasilla area of Alaska and is claiming first hand knowledge that people saw Bristol pregnant this summer and that Levi was saying in early May that he was going to be a daddy... even providing us an interesting detail of "baby crocs hanging from the rear view mirror."

The problem is at this point it's impossible to find an explanation that fits all of the statements. She could not have been pregnant last fall and taken out of Wasilla High School and still pregnant now. She had to have given birth at some point. (Of course, there are alternate explanations such as a miscarriage, but with no proof, it's really a waste of time to start going down these splinter paths.)

Although it has been widely stated that the story that was put out (at some point) to explain Bristol's absence from school was that she had "mono," I can't find any concrete source for that. This was stated by the Daily Kos writer and others from the beginning of this controversy in late August, and has been repeated endlessly, but where that statement came from initially I don't know.

First, it's pretty clear that Sue Williams' statement - that Bristol's current pregnancy was already advanced enough in early April for middle schoolers to be talking about it - is wrong. She would have had to become pregnant in February at the latest.. which would make her due now. That seems very unlikely based on photographic evidence from July (she doesn't look pregnant at all), early September (she looks a bit pregnant) and last week (hard to tell, but little if any change from September.)

Second, it's very difficult to reconcile the National Enquirer/Heather Bruce/assistant principal at Wasilla High information with a pregnancy that did not commence until April. If Bristol is due 12/18 this gives a date of conception right around 4/1. She herself would not have known until mid April and could easily have hidden it from family for a month or more, which takes us well into May.

So that leaves:

1. Bristol was pregnant with Trig last winter. The gossip Sue Williams reports refers to that pregnancy. Speculation: The family had mostly managed to conceal the pregnancy, so what was assumed to be a fairly "early" pregnancy in April was already well advanced. Bristol was due May 15th but gave birth a month early.
1a. Bristol is currently pregnant again, but not as far along as the McCain campaign has stated. She would likely be somewhere around 4 to 4 1/2 months as of 10/20, with a due date of mid February.
1b. Bristol is not currently pregnant. It is a fabrication of the McCain campaign designed to rebut the rumors that Sarah Palin is not Trig's mother.

2. Bristol was NOT pregnant with Trig last winter, and the time line which has been presented by the McCain campaign and Levi Johnston, giving her due date in mid December, is true, or nearly so.

Was Bristol visibly pregnant this summer? We have two photos both from the same week in July, and she does not look at all pregnant in either.

However, according to the "due in December" time line, she would have only been 17-18 weeks here, so probably not showing much if this is a first pregnancy. And "summer" is a long time. Summer could be the last week in August.

Here's the bottom line.

I am suspicious for a variety of reasons. I don't think it's necessary to rehash what has been said about Bristol's whereabouts last winter/spring. However, I can think of no plausible reason for the campaign to continue to hide her at this point unless... they have something to hide. It reminds me of the line from Juno: "I'm already pregnant... what other shenanigans can I get into?" We've been told she's pregnant and from comments (and one random sighting) she appears to be with the campaign. Again yesterday (10/20) and today (10/21), Willow and Piper were on stage with their mother... no Bristol. This is not Victorian times where the sight of a gravid belly is going to set us all to swooning. God knows, her own mother made it clear what she thinks of "Neanderthals" who think that women can't work, be pregnant, and care for children simultaneously. So why hide her away?

And again ... I'm stuck with the same conclusion I've been coming to since early September... because she's not nearly as pregnant as she is supposed to be... baby crocs notwithstanding.